CPI-inflation moved a bit upwards in March, caps on fuel prices had a substantial impact

HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Apr 2026 by Istvan Racz

---

Even though all eyes are kept on election news in these days, this morning's KSH release of the March CPI-inflation data still appears significant, offering some insight into prospects for the rest of the year.Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH and own estimatesUnsurprisingly, the yoy headline rate moved upwards, to 1.8% yoy, from the extraordinary low of 1.4% yoy in February, on a 0.4% monthly rise of the CPI. However, the monthly rate of core inflation and non-fuel inflation was only 0.1% alike, with the yoy core rate falling further to 1.9% (February: 2.1%) and the yoy non-fuel rate decreasing to 2.4% (February: 2.5%).Inflation was held down by food prices (-0.1% mom, unchanged yoy), pushed up by fuels, as far as the monthly rate is concerned (4.6% mom, -3% yoy), and service prices were also moderately disinflationary (0.2% mom, 4.1% yoy). An important disinflationary contribution was the continued favourable cycle of producer and import prices, with industrial producer prices down 3.3% yoy  and merchandise import prices falling 6.9% yoy (in HUF terms), both in February, and agricultural producer prices decreasing by 7.4% yoy in January:However, all this is far not the whole picture, given the introduction of administrative price caps on fuel prices for all domestic customers on March 10, not even mentioning the long-existing price controls on basic food and household items, the latter formally expiring at end-May. Importantly, fuels were sold 10.1% cheaper than the uncontrolled price (charged to foreigners or customers buying fuels for household grass-cutters, etc.) on average in March, meaning that the new price caps reduced the CPI by 0.65% on av...