Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

TURKEY - Report 10 May 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This policy raises new questions about the course of politics, if the war doesn’t end, or energy prices remain at record levels through 2027, as the IMF now believes.

On the econ side, we provide a very brief overview of the past week’s data releases, as usual, and look ahead to the coming week.

In a nutshell, industrial production was broadly unchanged in Q1, over the previous quarter, which confirms the ongoing stagnation in the sector.

Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted inflation data, while lower than our estimates generally speaking, confirmed, unsurprisingly, that the CBRT has a very challenging road ahead.

Now read on...

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