Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Jun 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ago. Investments soared by 18.2% y-o-y in 5M25 (up from 13.7% y-o-y in 4M25) also amid a low base effect – in 5M24 and 4M24 investments y-o-y were down by 6.5% and 5.3%. The construction segment grew y-o-y by 15.4% and 16.2% in 5M25 and 4M25 respectively, posting some deceleration amid uneven y-o-y growth figures over the same time frames a year ago. Industry also posted some deceleration in April having grown by 5.8% y-o-y, while the 5M25 tally was up by 6.4% y-o-y. The manufacturing segment delivered a mere 1.2% y-o-y growth in April alone while in 5M25, it was up by 6.0%. Interestingly, the mining segment was strongly up – by 10.4% and 11.3% y-o-y in April and 5M25. Oil extraction grew y-o-y by 16.0% and 10.2% over the same periods. Hence, it would be interesting to see how Kazakhstan could deliver on its promises to comply with OPEC+ quotas which local producers exceeded already long ago. As the country’s economic performance looked not too bad in 5M25, budget revenue collection also improved relative to the same period a year ago, especially on the local level while the republican budget was still short of tax revenues associated with the exchange rate and the oil price. Tax revenues for the republican budget climbed to 26.9% of the yearly target and were slightly below a mere KZT4.1 trln in 5M26. Local budgets combined accumulated over KZT3.0 trln (40.1% of the upwardly a...