Kazakhstan macro: Retail sales growth looks steady in 9M26 despite puzzling statistics
Recent publications from the Bureau of National Statistics indicated that in 1H26 GDP grew by 4.1% y-o-y, both on the production side and by end-use. According to official reports, total consumption rose y-o-y by 2.1% in 1H26, with household consumption up 2.0%, suggesting slightly faster growth in government consumption. Household consumption generally accounts for about half of GDP (48.5% in 1H26), while government consumption adds another 12.0% (as in 1H26) or so. Gross investment made up 28.4% of GDP during the same period. The remainder comes from net exports, calculated based on GDP by end-use, excluding statistical discrepancies. Interestingly, the Bureau didn’t highlight net export growth, even though it stated that exports rose 3.9% in real terms and imports dipped slightly, by 0.1%. Combining the above figures suggests net exports may have increased by about 17% y-o-y, which doesn’t quite align with the reported export and import changes.
Stable retail sales suggest that, even though household consumption in 1H26 was underwhelming, growth is holding steady — just at a slower pace than in the “overheated” years — and remains a key stabilizer for the economy. The investment-to-output ratio sits at a moderate 23.4%, showing that the share of investment in production capacity relative to GDP remains another key pillar, but it is mainly supported by FDI and related capital inflows. If those inflows ease, economic growth could slow significantly. So far, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace but remains vulnerable to external shocks.
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