Lula has lost political capital compared to the 2022 elections, Vorcaro is expected to testify before the Senate CAE tomorrow, and the TSE will hear a case against the Governor of Rio for irregularities in his 2022 campaign

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 Mar 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

Comparing Datafolha polling from 2022 and 2026 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has lost political capital during this period in both first-round and runoff simulations. Bolsonarismo, in turn, has improved its performance. Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, is expected to testify before the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) on Tuesday (Mar. 10). He is currently detained in Brasília by order of Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice André Mendonça. Also on Tuesday, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will hear an Electoral Judicial Investigation Action against the governor of Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro, who is accused of hiring thousands of temporary employees through the Ceperj Foundation for electoral purposes during the 2022 campaign.

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