Politics: Morena’s vote was way lower than expected in the Durango and Veracruz municipal elections
On June 1, the country held its first judicial elections, along with municipal races in Durango and Veracruz. Normally these state elections would not spark much interest nationally. This time, however, the races and their results attracted attention as a possible bellwether to gauge Morena’s fortunes for the future.
Morena itself viewed the races as important, particularly in Durango, a state governed by the PRI, which in 2022 won the state in coalition with the PAN and PRD. Morena dispatched its organizational secretary and political heavyweight operator Andrés Manuel López Beltrán, son of former President AMLO, to the state capital to run the campaign. In the end, the party’s vote was well below what had been projected. While “Andy” charged election fraud, more by reflex than conviction, there was no accompanying outcry or protests, unlike in the past.
In Veracruz, governed by Morena, the ruling party also posted poor results, in large part due to its inability to maintain a coalition with its two traditional allies, the Worker’s Party (PT) and the Green Ecologist Party (PVEM). This division in the ranks of 4T supporters hurt Morena but considerably helped the PT. The big winner in terms of increased votes was the Citizens Movement (MC), which filled the gap, functioning as a pole for attracting unaffiliated voters.
This first baptism by fire for the new Morena leadership around Party President Luisa Maria Alcalde and Organizational Secretary López Beltran, coupled with the lower-than-expected voter participation in the judicial elections (13%), indicates that the leadership duo faces major challenges ahead. Two conclusions can be drawn from the June 1 results. The first is that Morena saw its fortunes affected by errors in its electoral strategy, poor campaign organization, conflicts with its allies, internal disagreements, and its chronic triumphalism. The second is that the opposition, while wracked by crisis and thus far unable to offer a credible alternative on a national level, is nevertheless far from dead, as the results showed. It is still able to attract a significant number of voters.
The wager between now and the 2027 mid-term elections is whether both Morena, as well as the opposition, will be able to get their respective acts together.
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