Police at the Tribunal, a partial truce at the NBP and a warning from S&P, as the MPC turns hawkish

POLAND - In Brief 09 Nov 2026 by Jan Hagemejer

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Summary CPI inflation fell to 3.5% y-o-y in October, from 4.1% in September, below the 3.7% consensus. The return of the fuel relief cut pump prices by almost 10% in one month, and our estimate of core inflation eased to about 3.0%. The MPC kept the reference rate at 3.75% on November 4, but its message was hawkish. The new NBP projection shows CPI at 4.2% in 2027, because it assumes that the fuel relief ends in January, and NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said that the Council fears that rates will have to be raised. The conflict over the NBP board ended in a compromise. Prime Minister Donald Tusk (KO) countersigned, and President Karol Nawrocki (backed by PiS) appointed four new board members on November 6. Three of them sit on the MPC, so the Council will get three new members. The conflict over the Constitutional Tribunal moved from legal arguments to a physical standoff. A judge sworn in only before the Sejm suspended the Tribunal’s president, police were sent to the building, and the President went there at night and told the new judges that they are not judges. On November 17 the judges elected by the current Sejm will decide on lifting the immunity of the Tribunal’s president, in the same week as the Sejm vote on bringing Glapiński before the State Tribunal. On November 6 S&P lowered Poland’s local-currency rating to A- and changed the outlook to negative, saying that political polarization and the poor cooperation between the government and the President make it unlikely that the deficit will be cut before the 2027 election. Inflation and the MPC: a lower October reading and a hawkish projection According to the GUS flash estimate, consumer prices fell 0.4% m-o-m ...