Political update – October 9, 2026: Electoral deadlock and the road to a new government

ISRAEL - Report 09 Oct 2026 by Sani Ziv

With three weeks to go, our weekly average of polls from Israel’s three main television channels (Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13) shows the two blocs remain tied at around 52 seats each. Since August, Eisenkot’s bloc has fallen from around 59 seats to 52 seats while Netanyahu’s bloc has remained broadly stable at 50-52 seats.

The decline in Eisenkot’s bloc partly reflects stronger Arab-party representation, following Balad’s merger with the Joint List. Arab parties have gained around three seats since August, bringing the combined Eisenkot bloc and Arab parties to around 66 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc may also have benefited from Ofer Winter attracting undecided voters. This could help explain why it has remained stable despite the increase in Arab-party representation.

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