Economics: Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4% YoY, resulting in weak full-year growth of 0.5%
According to figures from INEGI, GDP for Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% YoY seasonally adjusted, showing a rebound compared to the previous quarter, when it fell -0.2%. This performance resulted in a total increase of 0.5% for 2025.
The secondary sector experienced weak growth in Q4 (0.3%) but is in positive territory for the first time after six consecutive quarters of annual declines. Despite the very slight recovery in the last quarter of the year, it accumulated a decline of -1.3% in 2025. Within industry, manufacturing suffered stagnation and declines in some months, primarily due to the poor performance of the automotive sector. The tertiary sector (services) saw a rebound in the quarter, increasing by 2.0% YoY after growing 1.0% in the previous quarter, accumulating an increase of 1.2% in 2025.
A slight recovery is estimated for this year, as it is considered that the minimum level of economic activity was reached in the third quarter and an inflection point occurred. However, this reactivation will be weak, with average growth estimate for 2026 at 1.1%.
Regarding the week's economic indicators, it was announced that in 2025 the trade balance recorded a surplus of 771 million dollars (md), an amount that compares with a deficit of 18,541 md in 2024. The non-oil surplus amounted to 26,323 md, ten times more than that generated in the previous year, while the petroleum products balance was in deficit by 25,552 md, compared to 21,226 md in 2024. This confirms that the strategy of stopping crude oil exports, producing petroleum products internally, and reducing their imports is not yielding results, at least in the short term. In 2025, the solid growth of extractive exports (27%) and non-automotive manufacturing exports (17.3%) stood out. In contrast, automotive exports fell by -4.2%, while agricultural exports did so by -10.8%, with both components affected by the Trump administration's trade policies. These items had been the most dynamic in exports in recent years.
On Thursday, February 5, the the Bank of Mexico will announce its monetary policy decision. The market anticipates that the institution will keep its interest rate unchanged, currently at 7.0%.
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