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TURKEY - Report 01 Mar 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The best advertised war of the Century started early Saturday morning with the assassination of key Iranian leaders, rapidly spreading to Gulf Countries and the Gulf of Hurmuz afterwards. As the politics analyst sends his essay to the editor, at 4 pm Istanbul time, Sunday, many important questions about the length, expanse and economic damage of the war cannot be answered.
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We are cutting the econ part relatively short in this round and don’t go deeply into the implication of the regional mess we are in, given the highly fluid nature of the situation. On other stuff, in a nutshell, the Economic Confidence Index rose in January-February combined (over the previous quarter), the unemployment rate fell but that’s because the labor force participation fell; and sectoral inflation expectations, bar households, improved but the pace of improvement is not aligned with the CBRT forecasts and targets.
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There are several important releases next week, with Q4 NIA and February inflation topping the list on which we say a few words inside.

Now read on...

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