Sinking popularity
When Daniel Noboa launched the referendum in April 2024, his popularity was approximately 75%—the highest among any previous presidents. He maintained a good profile during the first months of his second mandate in 2025 but started to face the problems of a fractured and divided country by the summer of last year.
He inherited an armed conflict derived from the infiltration of organized crime into the country, which his government has been unable to contain or reduce significantly. In September, the government eliminated the subsidy on diesel and faced the opposition of indigenous groups, although not with the intensity of the riots of 2019. In addition, there is an ongoing crisis in the health sector that is the product of corruption and incompetence, which his government has been unable to resolve. Access to medical attention and medicine is a cross to bear, especially for the most vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, his popular support as of November last year fell to 44%, hence the results of the referendum, for which the "yes" vote matched this percentage.
Given the intense political and economic problems of Ecuador, Noboa's government has been full of contradictory actions. Many of his actions have been positive and worth noting. He has signed several international trade agreements that have supported and enhanced Ecuador's exports, eliminated the subsidy on diesel—an action that other governments dared not take—and has made attempts to reduce insecurity, albeit not quite successfully. Also, during his government, extreme poverty has fallen, and there has been a marginal increase in adequate employment. He has also made efforts also to sustain the fiscal accounts, including with the latest bond issue.
However, Noboa’s reaction to his defeat last November was not at the level required of a statesman, and that cost his popularity even further. His prolonged absences from the country have not been well received by people who are waiting to see their problems solved. Instead, they have seen Ecuador enter a trade war with Colombia that many have given the nickname "Noboa’s Trump Card".
In a poll conducted by CD Gobal Data, he comes in as the fourth-worst evaluated president in Latin America, with a rejection rate of 58.9%. Even more concerning is his loss of support in Quito, which in May 2025 was one of his bastions.
We hope that the two urgent economic bills sent by the Executive and recently approved by the Assembly (regarding local government financing rules and attracting investment into the mining sector) are not halted by the Constitutional Court as they are good initiatives to solve important problems. We also hope that Noboa exercises a clearer and more creative leadership against crime with the aid of the United States so that he can walk a less problematic political path through the end of his mandate.
As of now, the two best cards he has are the strong discredit and internal turmoil of Revolucion Ciudadana and the weak support of Leonidas Iza from the indigenous movement, which is going through its own problems. But Ecuador deserves more than that.
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