The last peace-of-mind week ever?

COLOMBIA - In Brief 04 Mar 2026 by Andrés Escobar Arango

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So far this century, leftist governments in Latin America have typically lasted between 10 and 18 years, with Chávez – Maduro - Rodriguez outlasting this average, reaching 26 years (Table 1). Hence, Gustavo Petro needs to demonstrate that he and his heir can emulate his peers and reach at least 8 years, for which they need first the triumph of Pacto Histórico in the Congressional elections, and Iván Cepeda, or another representative of the extreme left, in the presidential election. The upcoming elections are crucial for him and for Colombia. Petro’s place in history is at stake, as well as the extreme-progressive agenda, the future of a sound economy, and our peace of mind. Table 1. Duration of leftist-progressive governments in Latin America Source: EConcept The first landmark in this process takes place on March 8th, with congressional elections. The two panels of Table 2 show the forecasts of political experts. The most serious ones expect leftist Pacto Histórico (PH-L) and right-wing Centro Democrático (CD-R) close in that race. CD-R should substantially increase the number of seats. Among the expected losers could be Cambio Radical, Conservative, and Liberal parties, and Alianza Verde. Despite all the complaints one hears daily about polarization, it seems the extremes will win the day, at the expense of parties in the political “center”. Table 2. Political experts’ forecasts of the March 8th senatorial elections Number of seats 2. Change of seats between 2022-2026 and 2026-2030 Source: expert firms and pollsters quoted in the columns. The other key contests on March 8th are three primaries, whose results seem quite clear from the polls presented in the panels of...