The truth in drips

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Apr 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The government raised the projected primary deficit from BRL 23 billion to BRL 60 billion. There are still indications of underestimation in spending on Social Security and BPC, while the oil shock led to the announcement of BRL 31 billion in subsidies and tax waivers, an amount that tends to increase over the year. Higher oil prices should boost revenues, but pressures for additional spending, especially in an election year, tend to offset part of this gain. We maintain our projection for the deficit in 2026 at around BRL 80 billion.

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