Politics: Ties between Morena and organized crime place Sheinbaum between a rock and a hard place
The thorny problem of ties between Morena governors and other public officials and organized crime, far from going away, is intensifying. These ties include the creation of large-scale criminal operations such as fuel theft, known as “huachicol”; the exchange of territorial control for electoral support with agreements between governors and criminal organizations; and the election of judges linked to organized crime in the June 1 judicial elections.
While these issues in and of themselves are serious, stoking conflict, contradictions and severe damage, the situation is greatly exacerbated by Donald Trump’s constant intervention and threats. Washington’s recent actions include accusations that three Mexican financial institutions are involved in drug-related money laundering, charges that the Claudia Sheinbaum administration is not doing enough to stop fentanyl trafficking to the United States and charges that the Mexican political system is seriously tied to organized crime.
An issue that has captured headlines in recent weeks involves the legal proceedings against Ovidio Guzman in the United States. In return for the death penalty being taken off the table, the former drug kingpin will cooperate with the prosecution and is expected to spill the beans about ties between Mexican politicians and organized crime. Fuel theft has been in the news, as well. Huachicol takes three forms: direct theft of fuels (gasoline, diesel, LP gas, jet fuel) by puncturing Pemex pipelines; fiscal huachicol (fraudulent imports of fuels to evade the special excise tax and VAT), and crude oil theft to refine it in Mexico or the United States. This crime is estimated to involve the loss of a whopping 11% of national production and to have cost Pemex and the Treasury US$25 billion during the AMLO administration. Interestingly enough, no arrests of high level members of organized crime or politicians have been made, fueling the belief that criminals working within the federal government are being protected.
All this puts enormous domestic and external pressure on Sheinbaum. Can she withstand or neutralize Trump’s pressure? Can she afford a confrontation with AMLO, whose supporters could be easily mobilized to “defend national sovereignty”? Given such a complicated panorama, will her ability to ensure governability be placed in doubt?
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