An uncertain electoral outlook given Noboa’s hits and misses
We recognize that President Noboa inherited a complex situation when he assumed his office in 2023. This included an unstable and vulnerable fiscal situation that endangered dollarization and an escalation in violence and organized crime that Ecuador had never before witnessed in its history.
The government oriented its efforts towards those two important threats. Responsible and assertive actions, with the aid of multilateral organizations, avoided an imminent fiscal crisis. Hard-line policies against crime, increased resources to improve the fighting capacity of the police and the military, changes in the legislation on national security, and aid from the United States have helped to mitigate citizens’ insecurity but have not been able to dismantle the criminal bands or eliminate the risks. These criminal organizations have proven to be extremely resilient, repeatedly testing the strength of the state. Focused attention on these two areas have left others unattended.
For example, the health sector is undergoing a spiraling crisis that the government has been incapable of resolving. Poor people are suffering continued pain every day in the face of the corruption, incapacity and indifference of the IESS and the public health system. The electricity sector was virtually abandoned after the blackouts of 2024. Government inability, the corruption of high public officials in the sector, and underestimation of the sector’s risks could leave Ecuador in the dark once again this and/or next year. To avoid a new possible crisis, the president has ordered that large industries with the capacity to generate their own electricity be disconnected from the national interconnected service for 72 hours a week. Some industries are generating electricity with equipment designed for emergencies only, operating on premium diesel, which is currently scarce and costly, not only in Ecuador but globally.
The local elections are drawing nearer. Many suspect—with some reason—that the electoral council, obedient to President Noboa, changed the date of the elections from February 2027 to November 2026, alleging El Niño could jeopardize the process in February. However, there is no consensus as to when this phenomenon could hit Ecuador the hardest—some experts think it could be precisely in November this year as the coastal area is already experiencing flooding as well as infrastructure and human losses.
Therefore, these elections could take place under water, in darkness and besieged by violence—not the greatest scenario for political success. Only the weakness and corruption of Revolucion Ciudadana, the main contender, could come to the rescue. We are hoping for the best—elections with calm weather, sufficient electric supply, and violence under control.
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