KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: The NBK cut the base rate and upgraded its growth forecast
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 18 Jun 2026
Recently, several organizations released updated forecasts for Kazakhstan’s economy in 2026, and the outlook is looking a bit brighter than a few months ago. The economy is steadily moving toward a more balanced growth path while easing past overheating caused by heavy budget spending and rapid h...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Jun 4 Qazaqgaz: The company and Russian Gazprom signed an agreement on additional gas supplies to Kazakhstan in 2026 Jun 5 NBK: The regulator lowered the base rate from 18% to 17%. NBK: The Bank has raised its forecast for the country's GDP growth in 2026 to 4.5-5.5% from the previously expected ...
Economic growth moderated but remains stable
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which measures combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, IT/communications, and trade, grew by 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26, slightly higher than the 4.2% growth in the first four months. In M...
Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices and the tax reform support budget revenues in 5M26
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Jun 2026
The Ministry of Finance announced that in 5M26, total revenues of the republican budget reached nearly KZT9.3 trln, or 40.5% of the annual plan. While this looks solid overall, tax revenues of KZT7.3 trln fell slightly short in our view, hitting 38.3% of the yearly target. The Ministry of Finance...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2026
May 21 Ministry of Justice: Naftogaz of Ukraine is seeking to validate in commercial arbitration in Kazakhstan its $1.44 bln claim against Gazprom for unpaid gas transit fees after the service was halted in 2022. Earlier, Naftogaz had won a similar arbitration against Gazprom in the Netherlands. ...
Inflation gradually slows but remains elevated
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in May, annual inflation eased to 10.4% from 10.6% in April, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.8%. Despite this moderation, inflation remains high, with the NBK keeping the base rate steady at 18.0%. Even the stronger tenge, which apprec...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 May 2026
May 8 National Railways: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (National Railways) plans to place three issues of CNY-denominated bonds totaling CNY 1.79 bln. National gas company: QazaqGaz placed 10Y Eurobonds worth $700 mln at 5.625%. May 11 Turkey: The Turkish President, Mr. Erdogan, will visit Kazakhstan on...
GDP growth moderated in 1Q26 but followed by stronger economic performance in April
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 May 2026
The Bureau of Economic Statistics reported that GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 1Q26 with the mining sector down by 11.4% y-o-y and manufacturing delivering 8.5% y-o-y growth. Industry in total contracted by 0.1% y-o-y. Trade (wholesale and retail combined) grew by 4.8% y-o-y. Construction was up by 14...
Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth moderates in the aftermath of last year’s overheating
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 May 2026
Recent economic statistics show that Kazakhstan’s economy resumed growing after the sharp drop in January caused by the oil export disruption due to the damage at the CPC sea oil terminal. However, January’s shock will still have some impact on overall growth in 2026, which will be slower than la...