KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...
Kazakh services sector keeps booming amid the country’s growing importance as a transit hub
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M25, freight transportation output grew by 11.9% y-o-y. The passenger transportation segment grew by 10.5% y-o-y. Transportation combined with warehousing (an SNA category) was up by 23.1% y-o-y. The difference in growth rates of transportation ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
May 29 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has not yet decided on the parameters for issuing Eurobonds, and is waiting for the market situation to improve. Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Banks from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are considering entering the Kazakh mark...
Inflation fueled by credit remains elevated as it climbs y-o-y amid m-o-m moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025 · 1 response
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation rose to 11.3% y-o-y in May from 10.7% y-o-y in April. Even though it reached a "mere" 0.9% versus 1.2% in April m-o-m, inflation m-o-m appears higher than a year ago. Services prices grew in May by 16.0% y-o-y (up from 15.7% y-o-y in April...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2025
May 15 Tengizchevroil: The company increased oil production by 25% y-o-y in 1Q25. Oil transportation: The volume of oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline decreased in 4M25 by 3% y-o-y Sanctions: The US has lifted a ban on previously imposed restrictions to provide services to CP...
Kazakhstan macro: economy doing well—but unclear how well
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 May 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth looked strong in 1Q25 and 4M25: in the former case, GDP grew by 5.6% y-o-y, and in the latter case, the short-term indicator was up y-o-y by 8.5% in 4M25 and 8.9% in April alone. The short-term indicator grew faster than GDP because ...
Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025
As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...
Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 May 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for t...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 May 2025
Apr 30 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is considering an increase of oil supplies to Germany to 2.2 mln tons in 2025 (vs initially planned 1.5 mln tons). Parliament: The Lower Chamber has approved a new Tax Code, which assumes VAT increases up to 16%. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakhstan introduce...