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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ready for a year of two halves?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2025

In this last quarterly/forecast report of the year, we provide a quick overview of the macroeconomics of 2025 and share our preliminary baseline scenario for 2026, the latter including our political risk map for the year. 2025 has played out broadly as expected, with inflation now likely to fi...

Aggressive cut, fuzzy statement
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% at the last meeting of the year (see chart). While the move is sort of “in line with expectations”, it is probably fair to say that it certainly is “deeper than hoped for” by a good majority of analysts, including this author. Put differently, th...

HEADS UP: Turkish military columns in Northern Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

At least three separate sources report that Turkish military convoys are entering Northern Syria from multiple directions. The incursion could be just a show of force by Ankara to force reticent Syrian Kurds to reach a deal with Damascus to integrate their military wing with the national army, or...

Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...

Q3 growth: surprisingly strong
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2025

The Turkish economy expanded by 1.1%, q/q, and 3.7%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, with the quarter-on-quarter (sequential) growth rate exceeding forecasts quite visibly, including our expectation of positive yet anemic growth in the quarter. What is more, all demand engines were ramped ...

Rate cut and peace hopes
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2025

By the urging of MHP leader Bahceli, a three-member delegation from the Peace Commission (PC) visited former PKK leader Ocalan in Imrali Island. Neither the delegation, nor the Commission, issued a statement on the exchange, but DEM Party parliamentary deputy whip Mrs Gulistan Kocyigit gave a len...

IMF says a tighter stance is called for
TURKEY · Report · 23 Nov 2025

We provide a very quick rundown of last week’s econ data releases and share a few thoughts on the concluding statement of the recent IMF Article IV consultation mission. Our politics author will share his contribution in the next day or two. In a nutshell, consumer confidence is holding up, em...

Too much political news to digest
TURKEY · Report · 16 Nov 2025

The politics author is under a news bombardment, all interrelated, which will take a week or two to fully digest and to reflect to his current predictions. The week started with the 4K pages long indictment of Ekrem Imamoglu, which, most notably, included a request by the prosecutors to the Attor...

Stranger things
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2025 · 2 responses

President Erdogan is marshalling his resources in the judiciary to open a new front in his showdown with CHP. The immunities of 12 CHP heavyweights, including chairman Ozer may be lifted. Meanwhile, shortly after the European Court of Human Rights ordered Turkey to release Selahaddin Demirtas, Ba...

2025 was lost, again, see you in 2026
TURKEY · Report · 07 Nov 2025

The CBRT released the fourth and final Inflation Report of the year and held its final briefing of the year. As expected, the Bank kept its medium-term (interim) targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 24%, 16%, and 9%, respectively, as in the August report. Also as expected, the Bank revise...

Better than expected, worse than it should be
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Consumer prices increased by a somewhat lower than expected 2.6%, m/m, in October, with the annual CPI inflation rate easing slightly to 32.9%, from 33.3% in September. Producer prices rose by 1.6%, m/m, as 12-month PPI inflation edged up modestly to 27%, from 26.6% a month earlier. The declin...

A quantum of quietude
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2025 · 1 response

With no major developments in two market-relevant issues that the politics author follows, namely the assault on CHP and corporate raids, he starts with the topic, which is on the lips of every Turkish pundit. He writes about new tensions surfacing between governing partners with a distinct lack ...

Looser monetary policy, tighter politics
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response

The politics section starts not with the acquittal of CHP from charges of a rigged convention, but charges of espionage about removed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who will have given testimony on Sunday. There is a non-negligible probability that a court will determine strong suspicion of him b...

MPC does the expected, says disinflation slowed, risks more pronounced
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by 100 bps to 39.5% today, in line with (median) expectations, which we had posited as a compromise move of sorts in our Sunday post, so we were not surprised. The key change in today’s statement pertains to the paragraph on inflation developments and outlo...

A most fateful week
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2025

The CBRT/MPC will convene on Thursday and the next day, a court in Ankara may rule that CHP’s 38th extraordinary convention was rigged, turning the party over to former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the base-case scenario). The politics author also suspects that Turkey may wake up to new corporate...

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