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Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response

Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...

Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025

Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...

A pre-Eid macro recap
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2025

We provide a quick overview of recent macro releases as we enter the Eid al-Adha holiday, which will last from this Friday through Monday. Although we’ve already talked about much of this stuff in our weeklies and briefs, a quick recap would not hurt, we thought. A most notable aspect of first...

An encouraging inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2025

May CPI inflation surprised to the downside, coming in at 1.5%, m/m, compared to the market consensus (and our forecast) of around 2%, with the 12-month rate thus dropping notably to a 42-month low of 35.4% from 37.9% in April. Domestic producer prices rose by 2.5%, m/m, in May, resulting in the ...

Unsettling politics, flagging economy
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

The battle of wills between President Erdogan and the main opposition CHP reached a crescendo last week, with courts ordering the arrest of 100 suspects on charges of graft, 5 of the suspects being CHP borough and township mayors. There are credible rumors that another court will rule the prev...

Domestic demand shrinks in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 30 May 2025

The Turkish economy grew by 1% in the first quarter of the year, sequentially, which was notably less than expected (around 1.5%), while annual growth was 2.0%, y/y (Graph 1). The expenditure composition of growth is starkly different in annual vs. sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, with domes...

On the eve of a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2025

President Erdogan is finally leading the charge to write a new constitution, which will incidentally grant him the right to run a third time. Yet, he is facing massive obstacles, which have not lessened despite PKK’s decision to disband. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli still don’t seem to grasp that...

Not much new in the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2025

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year today. As expected, the Bank maintained its yearend inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24% (midpoint of 19-29%) and 12% (midpoint of 6-18%), respectively (as well as the 2027 forecast at 8%).

The fork in the road
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2025

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds. Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdog...

Is the worst over yet?
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2025

While it is not officially announced, Turkey’s number one public enemy, PKK almost certainly said farewell to arms. While from the standpoint of the military-intelligence establishment, the terror threat will not cease until Syrian Kurds dissolve into the Syrian central administration, Messrs. Er...

April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025

Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...

A summer in purgatory
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 May 2025

The “narrow corridor” of 2025 that we’ve long been referring to, that of a CBRT traveling a tricky path between edgy politics and tenuous investor sentiment, has gotten narrower and more precarious quite a bit sooner than we anticipated. In this brief update to our previous quarterly/forecast ...

Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025

The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...

Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...

MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025

At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...

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