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CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response

With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...

MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025

The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...

Politics tumultuous, econ on autopilot
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2025

The politics author laments that this is the most difficult period in his 35 years of covering Turkey. Everything he writes below is subject to unusually large margins of error. Nevertheless, he makes bold predictions, believing that shedding some light into the future is better than saying “it a...

(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025

Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...

Strong retail sales, modest fiscal improvement
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2025

This is a brief, econ-only report, as our politics author is dealing with a few minor health issues. He will update our readership on recent political developments in the next 24-48 hours. Industrial production and retail and wholesale trade both rose visibly in May over April, but the big pic...

Disinflation amidst political turmoil
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jul 2025

The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, ...

Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...

Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...

A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...

Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...

MPC: Not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

The CBRT/MPC maintained the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) as well as the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 46%, 49% and 44.5%, respectively, as expected. The content of the statement was little changed as well (link here and here to the new and old statements, respectively). The CBRT ...

Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response

Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...

Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025

Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...

A pre-Eid macro recap
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2025

We provide a quick overview of recent macro releases as we enter the Eid al-Adha holiday, which will last from this Friday through Monday. Although we’ve already talked about much of this stuff in our weeklies and briefs, a quick recap would not hurt, we thought. A most notable aspect of first...

An encouraging inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2025

May CPI inflation surprised to the downside, coming in at 1.5%, m/m, compared to the market consensus (and our forecast) of around 2%, with the 12-month rate thus dropping notably to a 42-month low of 35.4% from 37.9% in April. Domestic producer prices rose by 2.5%, m/m, in May, resulting in the ...

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