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Inflation: a challenging start to 2026
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 4.8%, m/m, in January, with the 12-month CPI rate therefore easing only slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, while producer prices rose by 2.7% (January 2025: 3.1%, m/m) with the 12-month rate easing to 27.2% from 27.7% in December. The key driv...

A new Turkey story: under construction
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2026

Legendary and immortal Market Guru, the Cosmic Strategist (myself) decided to make an unsolicited return from His self-imposed retirement, to herald loudly that Turkey is building a new and very positive story based on four pillars, almost none of which the Cosmic Strategist believes are priced i...

About our report schedule
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2026

Dear Colleagues/Readers: We were compelled to postpone our monthly report, which was planned for today, to mid-next week. There will be no weekly report today. You can always reach us over the platform for any questions you may have. We are grateful for your understanding. GSP Turkey Team

MPC: check, Fitch: check, Syria: check
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2026

The politics author starts his analysis with a heads-up which is not covered in the main body of the Weekly: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan suspects Israel is about to attack Iran, a suspicion seconded in numerous international media sources. The Mullah regime falling without a clear successor, o...

CBRT surprises on the cautious side
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2026

Compared to forecasts of a 150 bps cut (including ours), the CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more modest and cautious 100 bps today to 37%. There were two relatively minor changes in the statement. Regarding January inflation, the Bank noted that “[w]hile leading indicators suggest that mon...

A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...

Dull economy, hectic politics
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2026 · 1 response

This week’s political essays start with foreign policy developments, covering allegations of illicit relations between Maduro and Turkey, Iranian unrest and the beginning of the end in Syria in the showdown between Kurds and al Sharaa. Herein in the short-term good scenarios are few. In the first...

We entered the New Year, now exit quickly
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jan 2026

Greetings from a planet that makes no sense and harbor few intelligence specimens, Earthlings. In the short span of a couple of weeks during which our team took a breather from machine-gun speed report writing, a pause which in my case lasted longer on account of my traditional winter upper respi...

Benign headline, same underlying challenges
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2026

December CPI inflation came in at 0.9%, m/m, broadly in line with expectations yet marginally lower than ours, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 30.9%, down from 31.1% in November. This is just under the lower end of the forecast range of the November Inflation Report (of 31–33%), yet mar...

An econ-only start to the New Year
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2026 · 1 response

As our politics author is dealing with a nasty flu, this is an econ-only weekly. He will provide his update in the next few days. Growth indicators that are now available for the full fourth quarter of last year – namely, manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indices – show tangible improvem...

Ready for a year of two halves?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2025 · 1 response

In this last quarterly/forecast report of the year, we provide a quick overview of the macroeconomics of 2025 and share our preliminary baseline scenario for 2026, the latter including our political risk map for the year. 2025 has played out broadly as expected, with inflation now likely to fi...

Aggressive cut, fuzzy statement
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% at the last meeting of the year (see chart). While the move is sort of “in line with expectations”, it is probably fair to say that it certainly is “deeper than hoped for” by a good majority of analysts, including this author. Put differently, th...

HEADS UP: Turkish military columns in Northern Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

At least three separate sources report that Turkish military convoys are entering Northern Syria from multiple directions. The incursion could be just a show of force by Ankara to force reticent Syrian Kurds to reach a deal with Damascus to integrate their military wing with the national army, or...

Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...

Q3 growth: surprisingly strong
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2025

The Turkish economy expanded by 1.1%, q/q, and 3.7%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, with the quarter-on-quarter (sequential) growth rate exceeding forecasts quite visibly, including our expectation of positive yet anemic growth in the quarter. What is more, all demand engines were ramped ...

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