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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...

Kazakh services sector keeps booming amid the country’s growing importance as a transit hub
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M25, freight transportation output grew by 11.9% y-o-y. The passenger transportation segment grew by 10.5% y-o-y. Transportation combined with warehousing (an SNA category) was up by 23.1% y-o-y. The difference in growth rates of transportation ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025

May 29 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has not yet decided on the parameters for issuing Eurobonds, and is waiting for the market situation to improve. Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Banks from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are considering entering the Kazakh mark...

Inflation fueled by credit remains elevated as it climbs y-o-y amid m-o-m moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025 · 1 response

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation rose to 11.3% y-o-y in May from 10.7% y-o-y in April. Even though it reached a "mere" 0.9% versus 1.2% in April m-o-m, inflation m-o-m appears higher than a year ago. Services prices grew in May by 16.0% y-o-y (up from 15.7% y-o-y in April...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2025

May 15 Tengizchevroil: The company increased oil production by 25% y-o-y in 1Q25. Oil transportation: The volume of oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline decreased in 4M25 by 3% y-o-y Sanctions: The US has lifted a ban on previously imposed restrictions to provide services to CP...

Kazakhstan macro: economy doing well—but unclear how well
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 May 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth looked strong in 1Q25 and 4M25: in the former case, GDP grew by 5.6% y-o-y, and in the latter case, the short-term indicator was up y-o-y by 8.5% in 4M25 and 8.9% in April alone. The short-term indicator grew faster than GDP because ...

Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025

As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...

Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 May 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for t...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 May 2025

Apr 30 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is considering an increase of oil supplies to Germany to 2.2 mln tons in 2025 (vs initially planned 1.5 mln tons). Parliament: The Lower Chamber has approved a new Tax Code, which assumes VAT increases up to 16%. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakhstan introduce...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge gradually weakens on lower oil, but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 May 2025

In recent days, the Kazakh authorities published macroeconomic statistics that shed additional light on the country’s situation (which looks not bad at all) and possible challenges ahead. Despite accelerated economic growth in 1Q25, it looks as though tax collection wasn't sufficient, not only in...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

Apr 3 National pipeline company: The volume of Kazakh oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba oil pipeline in March reached 150K tons and increased by 50% compared to February. Ministry of Trade: US tariffs will affect less than 5% of Kazakhstan exports to the US. KMG: The heads of KMG and ...

Economic growth accelerated in 1Q25, the NBK keeps base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Apr 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its base rate unchanged at 16.5%, which looks unsurprising given that y-o-y inflation climbed to 10.0% in March amid m-o-m inflation at 1.3%-1.5% in the past two months. The NBK chairman, Mr. Suleimenov, quoted high inflation expectations as one of the main re...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025

The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...

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