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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tax revenues soar in 2M26 amid VAT reform
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

In 2M26, the republican budget posted a small deficit of about KZT0.9 trln while the full year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. The 2M26 deficit appeared small, not least because expenditures lagged as about KZT0.9 trln was left unallocated. Hence, in 2M26, expenditures accounted for 14.3% of...

Kazakhstan macro: “Never cared for games they play”
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Mar 2026

On March 3, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged but hinted that it could decline in 2H26. The regulator mentioned that inflationary pressure is easing and referred to decelerating y-o-y inflation (11.7% in February versus 12.2% in January). The NBK pointed to s...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

Feb 26 National gas company: QazaqGaz and the Qatari UCC Holding have developed a project design for the construction of a second gas processing plant at Kashagan with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm. EBRD: The bank upgraded Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%. Tengizchevroil: O...

Navigating oil and FX volatility - Slide presentation and webinar replay
KAZAKHSTAN · Presentation · 27 Feb 2026

How will tax reform impact Kazakhstan's economy and budget? What trends in currencies are impacting the tenge amid an evolving global landscape? Will the Central Bank's monetary policy be effective at controlling interest rates? What's ahead for the country's macroeconomic prospects in 2026? ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Feb 2026

Feb 13 World Bank: The Bank is ready to provide financing up to $1bln per year for projects in Kazakhstan in 2026-2031. National railways: IPO of Kazakhstan Railways may take place in May. KMG: The company increased oil and gas condensate production by 10% in 2025. US Embassy: The US is working w...

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response

The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...

Kazakhstan macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported ...

Statistics brings more surprises and looks increasingly volatile
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics confirmed earlier statements from authorities, announcing that GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. While the Bureau describes this as a flash estimate, it’s almost certain to hold given the agency’s track record of never revising historical data. In nominal terms, GDP reac...

Economic statistics could look even more puzzling this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing January data, and the first reports are as puzzling as ever. With m-o-m data missing for many time series and, in some cases, m-o-m and y-o-y figures showing growing discrepancies, it looks like we can expect more statistical mysteries this ye...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

Jan 29 Government: The US Chevron promises to take measures to ensure reliable and safe operation of facilities in the Tengiz oil field. LUKOIL: Russian company has signed an agreement with US Carlyle on the sale of its foreign assets, excluding those which are based in Kazakhstan. Jan 30 Agency ...

Inflation remained elevated in January, the NBK held the base rate steady amid mounting uncertainty
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026

While the initial economic and financial figures for January don’t look too bad, growing uncertainty has led the National Bank to keep the base rate at 18%. The NBK thinks inflation expectations are still high and seems set on holding the base rate steady for about six months. Y-o-y inflation is ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026

Jan 15 Stock market: The trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) increased by 3% in 2025. Bureau of National Statistics: Investments in fixed assets in Kazakhstan increased by 13% in 2025. Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 5.9% in 202...

Kazakhstan macro: ambitious VAT reform to reduce republican budget dependence on transfers, exchange rate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jan 2026

The Kazakh authorities accomplished the fine-tuning of the tax reform with the intent to reduce the dependence of public finances on the USD/KZT exchange rate and oil prices. We mentioned previously that the main emphasis of this reform is not just the VAT hike but also how the tax should be paid...

NBK kept the base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jan 2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate at 18.0% amid faster-than-expected economic growth and high inflation (12.3% in 2025 as a whole and 0.9% m-o-m in December), staying well above the medium-term target. The NBK’s chairperson quoted 6.5% GDP growth in 2025, i.e., the sam...

Economic growth remained strong in December
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator—a flash estimate of economic activity across six main sectors—rose by 9.4% in 2025. For 11M25, it was up 9.3%, suggesting a bit of acceleration in the final month. Transportation and warehousing led the way with 20.4% growth...

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