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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cautious optimism regarding a cease-fire and Wiz sale strengthen the shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Jul 2024

1. The shekel appreciated sharply as cease-fire expectations have increased, and the sale of Wiz to Google for 23bn USD is also a macro story. 2. The BoI expects only one rate cut in the coming year, but much will depend on the geopolitical risk premium. 3. Fiscal revenues continue to excee...

Hurricane Beryl hits breadbasket parish of St. Elizabeth like an "atomic bomb"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Just under two weeks ago, on Wednesday, July 3, Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica with strong winds, rain and powerful waves as a Category 4 storm. Beryl had previously made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded in July, before it was downgraded from Category 5 to Category 4. While the ca...

Shekel appreciated on possible cease-fire deal and sale of Wiz to Google
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: Cease-fire negotiations are underway as hostilities continue. On Saturday, Israel targeted Muhammed Deif, the Hamas military chief, regarded as number 2 in Hamas (after Sinwar). It is not clear how this assassination will affect negotiations. Meanwhile, missile attacks from the North...

When the rubber meets the road
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2024

The politics section of this Weekly Tracker is rather brief and to a large extent repetitive, because the author managed to catch pneumonia for the third summer in a row. The bulk of it is a refresher on Erdogan’s candidacy status -- and how this relates to early elections. In a nutshell, the aut...

The Vice-President as "Designated Survivor"
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jul 2024

As reported in the broadsheets recently, the popularity and approval ratings of Vice-President Sara Duterte, one of the frontrunners to the Philippine presidency in 2028, are being pulled down by no less than his namesakes. The reason, as pointed out by a political commentator, is the shared bran...

F16s for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2024

On July 10 NATO announced that it had commenced the transfer of fighter jets. Ukrainian pilots have been training on them for a year. F16s will be a major boost to the Ukrainian Air Force. On July 5 Russia claimed to have destroyed several Ukrainian jets on the ground. NATO released a strongly wo...

Russian macro: economic trends unchanged, pointing to decent GDP growth in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jul 2024

In the past seven days or so Rosstat, Minfin, and the CBR published their regular monthly statistics, allowing us a fresh look at the Russian economy in general. The main conclusion is that the trends that emerged earlier this year have not been broken, and most segments of the economy continued ...

The House approved the bill on the production of green hydrogen, Senator Braga will be the rapporteur for the Tax Reform bill approved in the House, and the Senate will focus on payroll tax relief next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2024

Yesterday, the House approved Bill 2308/23, which regulates the production of hydrogen that is considered low carbon (green hydrogen), instituting voluntary certification and federal tax incentives. The text now goes to the President to sanction. Regarding Tax Reform, the rapporteur in the Senate...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Russian diamonds lose their shine for Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jul 2024

We argued recently that the heady GDP growth that Armenia has been posting since last Nov can be almost exclusively attributed to the trade in Russian diamonds. In particular, we tracked it down to the exponential increase in diamond trade over the axis of Russia-Armenia-UAE/Hong Kong, which, in...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells bonds, Adnoc signs up LNG investors, Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate former health minister, won Iran’s presidential election. * Aramco sold $6bn in 10 to 40-year bonds at tight spreads. * Saudi Arabia raised a further $1bn from the Aramco equity sale through ...

Balance of payments holds steady in 2Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus amounted to $18.0 bln in 2Q24, which was not as much as in 1Q24 but still enough to secure a $40.6 bln current account surplus in 1H24. The trade balance reached $67.8 bln and was almost the same in both quarters ($33.8 bln and $34.0 bln). Monthly...

The House approved the Tax Reform regulation bill on consumption, the second Tax Reform bill will be put to a vote after the recess, and the payroll tax exemption issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2024

The House concluded the voting on PLP 68/24, regarding the regulation of Tax Reform. This is an important victory for the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The second Tax Reform regulation bill, which deals with the Managing Committee, was left for the second semester. The vote is sche...

Ukraine receives more military aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

On July 8 Zelensky visited Poland and met the prime minister. As usual this was announced in advance. The meeting was surprisingly low key. Zelensky has sometimes addressed the public when he visits Poland. On July 7 the British Defense Secretary visited Odessa, Ukraine. He is new in office becau...

National government debt continues to rise but at a decelerated rate
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Jul 2024

Public debt reflects the ability of governments to finance their annual budgets. If tax and non-tax revenues do not suffice, and reserves are not adequate to be drawn down, governments resort to borrowings from both domestic and external capital markets. The Philippines’ national government in...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

June 27 President: A referendum on the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan will be held in autumn 2024. S&P: The agency has upgraded the rating of Kazakhstan Kaspi Bank from BB to BB+, with a stable outlook. June 28 KASE: The stock exchange plans to hold talks with the Moscow Exchange ...

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