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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Campaigns for the municipal elections begin on August 16, Congress will hold a few weeks of concentrated voting efforts, and senators are calling for the urgent status of the Tax Reform regulation bill to be withdrawn
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2024

There are 101 federal deputies and two senators who will run in this year's elections. According to the electoral calendar, the campaigns start on August 16. The President of the House, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), announced that, by agreement among leaders, there will be three weeks of concentrat...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

Jul 10 Energy Information Administration: The US Department of Energy lowered the forecast for the production of liquid hydrocarbons in Kazakhstan for 2024-2025 from 1.95 bpd to 1.92 bpd. OPEC+: Kazakhstan exceeded OPEC+ quota by 72K b/d in June. Agency for Protection and Development of Competiti...

Industrial growth slows in June
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

Rosstat reported that in June, industrial growth decelerated to 1.9% y-o-y. In seasonally adjusted terms, it contracted by 1.5% m-o-m. As a result, in 1H24, Russian industry grew by a mere 4.4% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted in 1H24 by 1.3%, while manufacturing grew by 8.0% (both y-o-y.) In...

IMF concludes Article IV review for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Jul 2024

The IMF technical team, upon concluding the Article IV review for 2024, recognized that the history of solid policies and firm institutional frameworks have allowed the Dominican Republic to exhibit robust and resilient economic growth with low inflation over the past two decades. The IMF suggest...

The Third Plenum and US-China relations
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2024

The Third Plenum occurs every five years and sets the tone for economic policy for the future. This year’s Third Plenum has been quite dull, with the leadership issuing a policy document that was a grab bag of Xi Jinping’s main talking points. It was also almost over-shadowed by continuing rumors...

Romanian jets scrambled due to drone attacks in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2024

On July 24 the fighter aircraft flew because the Russian drones came within 300 meters of the Romanian border with Ukraine. Fragments of destroyed Russian drones have fallen on Romania many times since the war began in 2022. Romania is a NATO and EU country. It hosts a major US Air Force base. Al...

On the road to July 28
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2024

As of now, elections will likely take place. The focus shifts to the government’s tactics blocking opposition witnesses, possible disruptions on election day (electricity or communication systems failures that the government "alerts" as a possibility of opposition sabotage), practices that deter ...

Lula announced he is developing a proposal to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Congress is pressuring the government to address expenditure, and the first phase of the Voa Brasil program begins today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2024

Yesterday, President Lula announced that Brazil is developing a proposal to join the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s infrastructure and investment project that already includes around 150 countries. In Congress, there is pressure for the government to address expenditure, not just revenue issue...

A review of the economy as the BJP begins its third term
INDIA · Report · 24 Jul 2024

The BJP has begun its third term, and this is a good time to review the overall state of the economy. There are important debates taking place, with concerns about measurement of GDP and employment as seen in the official data. We are able to pull together an internally consistent picture drawing...

Changing things so everything stays the same
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Jul 2024

After the May 1 elections, in which the independent caucus won the most seats (23/70) but not enough to form a majority (36/70), the selection of the National Assembly committees took place, which are crucial in shaping the country’s political agenda. The outcome was a resounding victory for the ...

Analysts proved right, the base rate was reduced by 25bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2024 · 1 response

The base rate went to 6.75%, in conformity with analysts' pre-meeting near-consensus, which we reported about last night (in CEST terms). At the usual post-meeting 'background conversation' (roughly the same as a press conference), Mr. Virág said that at today's meeting, the two options discussed...

Why is it so hard for China to boost domestic consumption?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this report: * The consumption share of GDP is so low in China that for it to comprise a more normal level, equivalent to that of other very low-consuming economies, requires that in the future, the consumption share of GDP growth be extraordinarily high. For ex...

The Ministry of Finance confirmed compliance with the spending limit of the fiscal framework, the government continues to discuss budget issues, and the Tax Reform regulation bill will be sent to the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2024

The Ministries of Finance and Planning confirmed yesterday the containment of R$ 15 billion in discretionary expenses in this year's budget to comply with the spending limit of the new fiscal framework. However, Congress is starting to signal that the government needs to change its agenda. Yester...

Honey, I Doubled the Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jul 2024

The federal government has revised its primary deficit projection for 2024 from R$ 27.5 billion (0.2% of GDP) to R$ 61.4 billion (0.5% of GDP), despite suspending R$ 15 billion in expenditures. The deterioration of expected performance is partly due to revenue shortfalls, but mainly due to the...

Tax revenues and budgetary spending lag behind amid widening deficit
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2024

The Ministry of Finance published budget execution statistics for 1H24, and the data show that despite delayed spending, deficits of the consolidated and republican budgets are widening amid suppressed tax revenues. Excessively strong tenge still drags the latter. In 1H24, the consolidated budget...

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