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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lula met with government leaders to discuss the IOF increase, disapproval of Lula’s administration has reached the highest levels of his term, and Lula held a press conference yesterday to highlight government achievements
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2025

President Lula met yesterday with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), to discuss alternative measures to the IOF tax increase. PoderData released a new poll yesterday on the public’s eval...

"No" to accountability and justice?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Jun 2025

Even before the Philippines’ House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on February 5, 2025 by a vote of 215 out of 306 members based on a 44-page “verified complaint for impeachment,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had on many occasions distanced himself from the whole process...

Agricultural gains prevent total economic stagnation in Q1-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2025

Real quarterly GDP increased marginally by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This followed an expansion of 0.4% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2024 and a contraction of 0.3% q/q in the third quarter of 2024. The latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started the year ...

A generation of progress vanishing into thin air
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jun 2025

Congress is again analyzing President Gustavo Petro’s labor reform proposal, and the result seems very problematic: it could be even worse than the original proposal. On May 27th, the fourth committee of the Senate approved a version of labor reform, which now moves to the floor of the upper hous...

The CBR getting ready to reconsider interest rate policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025

Recent statistics from the CBR showed that as of May 1, household credit contracted by 0.5% YTD and increased by a mere 4.1% y-o-y, i.e., well below inflation (10.23%). From November 2024 to February 2025, household credit contracted in m-o-m terms every month. In March and April, it resumed grow...

An encouraging inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2025

May CPI inflation surprised to the downside, coming in at 1.5%, m/m, compared to the market consensus (and our forecast) of around 2%, with the 12-month rate thus dropping notably to a 42-month low of 35.4% from 37.9% in April. Domestic producer prices rose by 2.5%, m/m, in May, resulting in the ...

Minister Haddad met with government leaders to discuss the IOF tax, Galípolo said the IOF should not be used to generate revenue, and STF Justice Moraes scheduled sessions to discuss the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met yesterday with the President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), to discuss alternatives to increasing the IOF (Tax on Financial Transactions). Yesterday, at an event hosted by the Cent...

Israeli geopolitics: Reconfiguring the Middle East and its strategic implications
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jun 2025

Key takeaways from this report: - President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar signaled a strategic realignment. It underscored growing divergence with Israel over Gaza and elevated the Gulf states as central partners in regional innovation and diplomacy. - Trump’s meeting...

Inflation fueled by credit remains elevated as it climbs y-o-y amid m-o-m moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025 · 1 response

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation rose to 11.3% y-o-y in May from 10.7% y-o-y in April. Even though it reached a "mere" 0.9% versus 1.2% in April m-o-m, inflation m-o-m appears higher than a year ago. Services prices grew in May by 16.0% y-o-y (up from 15.7% y-o-y in April...

Hamas rejects ceasefire proposal in current form; fiscal risks for 2025 rise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025

Following the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, Hamas has, for now, rejected the offer in its current form. While Hamas sources told Arab media that the proposal was not "categorically" rejected and could serve as a basis for continued talks, both Israel and the United States consider the group's r...

Hurdles facing new electoral rules and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

This is expected to be a quiet week in the National Congress due to the 11th BRICS Parliamentary Forum, taking place in Brasília. On Monday, June 2, the Lower House may vote on the urgent status for a bill favoring the chemicals industry. In the Supreme Federal Court, attention will be on the rul...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

OVERVIEW THE MASKS COME OFF The series of crises generated by the Lula administration has shattered myths and exposed personal and systemic weaknesses. With no real plan for the country other than increasing public spending to keep the Workers' Party (PT) in power, the current model distor...

Anatomy of an imbalance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

GDP grew by 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last of 2024 in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly below the average market forecast of 1.5%. Compared to the same period last year, it grew 2.9%, also slightly below expectations. There were no surprises in terms of growth breakdown: as antic...

Nawrocki will be the next Polish president. The hopes of the government coalition weaken.
POLAND · In Brief · 02 Jun 2025

The election night on June 1st was very stressful, as the initial results were on the edge. The first exit polls showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (0.6 pp at 9:00 pm), but the two subsequent late exit polls during the night showed a slight advantage for Nawrocki. However, the early mornin...

Politics: High profile CDMX killings spark nationwide concern
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jun 2025 · 1 response

In a country accustomed to alarming levels of violence and a staggering death count, Mexico was nevertheless shocked by the May 20 murder of two close collaborators of Clara Brugada, head of the Mexico City government. The killing of Brugada’s personal secretary and a close advisor was well plann...

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