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GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait plans huge debt issuances, Gulf airlines achieve record profits, Bahrain may import Russian LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $64 on tariff worries, rising inventories and OPEC+ taper speculation. * A fifth round of US-Iran talks is underway, but Khamenei downplayed the prospects. * NEOM’s green hydrogen plant, opening next year, i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia—Key FX flows continue to pour in as the NBG accumulates FX reserves
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 May 2025

The NBG Governor made what appeared to be a surprising statement this week, claiming that this year net FX purchases are already much higher than last year's net sales. Given that last year's net sales amounted to US$434.8mn while net purchases Jan to Mar were only US$101.7mn, net FX acquisitions...

South Africa confronts fiscal strain and global uncertainty in early 2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 22 May 2025

• South African growth: Continuing from 2023’s muted growth, the South African economy recorded another lackluster growth rate in 2024. The annual growth also came in lower than the Treasury forecast of 1.3% at the beginning of the year. The insipid growth was registered despite a marked improvem...

Not much new in the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2025

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year today. As expected, the Bank maintained its yearend inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24% (midpoint of 19-29%) and 12% (midpoint of 6-18%), respectively (as well as the 2027 forecast at 8%).

Budget cuts and spending freezes should be announced, the House approved the bill that restructures federal government career paths, and a Senate committee approved a proposal that puts an end to re-elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2025

Between today and tomorrow, budget cuts and spending freezes are expected to be announced. Yesterday, President Lula met with the Budget Execution Board to discuss the size of the cuts. Yesterday, the Lower House approved Bill 1466/25, which restructures career paths and adjusts the salaries of f...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 May 2025

The ruble kept appreciating and broke the USD/RUB80 mark. The last time this level appeared was in the spring of 2023. According to the CBR, household demand on FX shrank by over 50% y-o-y in 4M25. The demand for FX migrated to the primary market of quasi-FX bonds, actively placed in recent month...

Senate committees approved the General Environmental Licensing Bill, the Senate CCJ held a public hearing to discuss the IBS Management Committee, and the Lower House installed a special committee on AI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2025

The Senate’s Environment (CMA) and Agriculture (CRA) Committees approved the General Environmental Licensing Bill (Bill No. 2159/2021) yesterday. The text may be voted on today by the Senate floor. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution, Justice, and Citizenship Committee (CCJ) held a public hearin...

Social unrest significantly impacts economic activity and weakens government leverage for future reforms
PANAMA · Report · 21 May 2025

Panama is navigating a complex landscape of social unrest, fiscal challenges, and policy shifts. The economy has been hit by month‑long strikes from SUNTRACS, teachers, and banana workers—driven by grievances over the pension law reform, the proposed reopening of the copper mine, ACP’s Río Indio ...

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...

Risks of high inflation and recession escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

The worsening outlook for Venezuela’s export revenue is heightening the already high inflation and recession risks we have been warning about. The country is facing a severe negative shock from the convergence of sharply deteriorating global oil market conditions, tighter sanctions on Venezuel...

Improving price stability but no good prospects for GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 20 May 2025

Energy prices remain favorable for importers such as Hungary, especially regarding crude oil. We still consider the occasionally repeated US threat of retaliatory tariffs on those who buy Russian energy as unlikely to materialize. However, an alternative plan by the EU to end all purchases of Rus...

Ibama approved Petrobras’s environmental license for oil exploration in the Amazon, the PDT will meet to mark the return of Lupi to the national leadership of the party, and the House will review the tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2025

The Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) yesterday approved the framework of the Wildlife Oiled Response and Protection Plan (PPAF), presented by Petrobras. This represents an important step in the environmental licensing process for oil exploration in the Fo...

Will President Boluarte be impeached? Economy booms in Q1 2025, but will slow in H2; BCRP to stand pat in 2025; Congress set to approve another pension fund withdrawal
PERU · Report · 20 May 2025

Politics took center stage in Peru in May. This report analyzes the key issues. In the first section, we discuss the Cabinet crisis, and whether it constitutes a preamble for the impeachment of President Dina Boluarte, whose governance has become fragile. Next, we discuss the robust 4.7% real GDP...

Consumer loans are going bad
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The latest data releases again reinforce the story we’ve been telling all year and much of last year: Beijing may talk a lot about the urgent need to boost domestic demand, and it may make weekly or even daily announcements about how it proposes t...

Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025

As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...

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