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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Moldova has met most conditions for EU membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

On March 12 the EU Commission privately published a report saying that Moldova has met 11 of the 12 conditions for accession talks. The report was leaked to the media. The last remaining condition is to examine the background of judges properly and appoint a new Prosecutor General. There have bee...

February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

NBU surprised with a minor prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 14.5%, effective March 15. This decision came as a surprise to the market, especially following the January announcement that a minor prime rate cut might only be considered in the second half of 2024. The main justification for this unexpected m...

Haddad canceled his trip to Berlin because of the ministerial meeting on Monday, Tarcísio met with Haddad to discuss São Paulo’s federal debt, and the bill on electronic gambling was approved in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, was going to participate in the 10th Edition of the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue next week. However, he decided to cancel his trip because there will be a ministerial team meeting on Monday, March 18. Yesterday, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de...

The federal budget remains in decent shape in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M24, the federal budget accumulated over R5 trln in revenues over R1.6 trln coming as oil-and-gas taxes and about R3.4 trln as the non-O&G ones). These amounts accounted for 14.3% of the annual plan in the case of total revenues and 14.1% and 14.5% in the...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The ruble recently fluctuated within a relatively wide range (R/$ 90-93), and these fluctuations were driven mainly by local factors rather than fundamental trends. According to the CBR statistics, sales of hard currency by top exporters decreased in February from $12.9 bln to $10.4 bln. The latt...

Kazakhstan macro: The art of financing budgetary expenditures
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan started publishing economic data for February, and it looks as though economic growth remains relatively stable, albeit uneven across sectors and with some signs of deceleration. For instance, the Bureau reported that retail sales grew by 4.0% y-o-y...

Trade data points to recovery, core trade deficit continues to shrink
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024

In February, there was a rapid increase in both industrial exports and imports (seasonally adjusted). Industrial exports increased by 9.5 percent (compared with January), mainly pharmaceuticals, electronic components, and defense exports. Exports rose 7.1% in Dec-February, following a similar dec...

Biden approves USD 300 million in military aid for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2024

On March 12 the US President said this is needed to keep Ukraine in the fight. The money given is what the US military has saved on recent purchases. Therefore, the President has the authority to spend it. Usually Congress and not the president has the power of the purse. Most of the aid will be ...

The House approved a bill that increases the income tax exemption limit, the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS, and the Comsefaz will meet to discuss the ICMS rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House approved a bill that makes it possible to exempt individuals from the Income Tax (IRPF) on amounts up to two minimum wages (R$2,842.00). The measure is included in Bill 81/24, which will now be sent to the Senate. Also today, the 1st Section of the Superior Court of Justice (...

China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...

Current account surplus improves + institutions sell some FX in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

Yesterday's shekel depreciation (1.1% against the basket) occurred despite the increases in overseas markets and positive news regarding an increase in the current account surplus in the fourth quarter, to $10.5 billion, compared with $4.7 billion in the third quarter. The goods and services acco...

Ricardo Martinelli (via his alter ego José Raúl Mulino) leads the polls by a wide margin
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

Today, the newspaper La Prensa published the latest presidential survey, in which José Raúl Mulino leads voter preferences with 26%, followed by a technical tie among candidates Ricardo Lombana (10.8%) of the MOCA party, Martin Torrijos with the Popular Party (10.8%), and Rómulo Roux (10.2%), lea...

Kazakh President in Azerbaijan to hail transport link
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

On March 11 President Tokayev was in Baku for the arrival of the first containers to travel from China to Azerbaijan via Kazakhstan. This is via rail and the Caspian Sea, a route of 7,000 km. The journey took 11 days. The plan is for 10 such consignments to travel each month. Tokayev's 2-day visi...

Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024

In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...

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