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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Zelensky delivers peace plan to Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

On March 8 Zelensky held talks with the Turkish President. The two discussed the war, joint military manufacturing and Ukrainian food exports crossing the Black Sea. This is of interest to Turkey since it buys Ukrainian grain and the rest passes through Turkish waters. Turkey is building corvette...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, PIF gets more Aramco stock, Qatar surplus vs Kuwait deficit, Egypt devalues currency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ extended its additional voluntary cuts for at least another quarter until June. * Hopes faded for a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza, and the Houthis attacks headed up in the Red Sea. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to ...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

Webinar Replay: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

What is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts? Is fiscal policy trending procyclical again? What are the risks to the GCC from regional conflicts? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook" webinar.

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

Disinflation beat analyst expectations again in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

Headline inflation for February has been reported at 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter marginally down from 3.8% in the previous month. Core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 5.1% yoy, the year-on-year rate moving down quite substantially, from the previous 6.1% yoy. Non-fuel inflation also dropped to 4....

Lula’s approval ratings have dropped below 50%, the government should submit a bill next week on the Perse program, and the STJ will adjudicate a case on the calculation of the ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2024

For the first time since the beginning of his term, the majority of Brazilians do not approve of the Lula government. Approval fell from 52% in January to 47% in March. Next week, the government should submit a bill to Congress that deals with the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Event...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

Sweden in NATO irks Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

On March 7 Sweden formally joined NATO ending over 200 years of neutrality. The accession ceremony took place in Washington. Sweden developed an impressive military manufacturing sector because as a neutral state it could not always be sure of being able to buy arms. For decades Sweden had intero...

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

Russian air strikes on Ukraine city as Greek PM visits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 6 Russia continued its aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities. There were strikes on Odesa as the Greek Prime Minister was there. Russia has usually avoided attacking cities while a foreign leader is present. Kyriakos Mitsotakis was holding a meeting with Zelensky in Odesa. Mitsotakis wa...

Peru: Pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The risk of a new pension fund withdrawal has increased recently, although we believe that the probability remains at 40%. Congress-member Jose Luna Galvez, owner of the Telesup University and Podemos political party, which has strong influence on Congress's Consumer Defense Commission, is pressi...

The House elected presidents of the permanent committees, Haddad meets with governors to discuss the Fiscal Recovery Regime, and the government’s approval rating drops
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House began the election process for the permanent committees of the House. The presidents of 19 of the 30 committees were elected. Deputy Caroline de Toni (PL-SC) was elected president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, met w...

Slide Presentation: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Get insight into what is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts, whether or not fiscal policy is trending procyclical again, and risks to the GCC from regional conflicts with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook".

Business sector activity continues to improve gradually
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The Business Tendence Survey for February points to further gradual recovery in growth, although at a pace slower than pre-war. The current situation component improved slightly but remains below the pre-war level. The expectations component turned slightly net positive from net-negative. The emp...

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