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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CCA Highlights: Armenia growth still brisk in 3Q, Azerbaijan closes USAID, Georgian Dream boosted by intensifying split in opposition, S&P confirms Uzbekistan at BB-
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Economy grows by a robust 7.4 percent YoY in 3Q23 Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 6.0 percent YoY in Oct Armenia: Hayakve (Armenian vote) initiative to be discussed in Parliament in two mo...

Belarus' president in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2023

On December 4 Lukashenko arrived in Beijing and met with President Xi. China is one of the very few countries willing to receive him since the disputed 2020 election. Lukashenko likes to prove that he has friends who are not just in Russia. This is the second time Xi has met Lukashenko this year ...

The reports on the appointments to the STF and PGR should be read tomorrow, the Senate is expected to vote on the bill on Fies debt forgiveness, and negotiations are ongoing regarding Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur for Flávio Dino's appointment to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT-MA), submitted his report for analysis by the members of the Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). On Wednesday, the CCJ will meet, and Weverton is expected to read...

Ministerial changes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2023

The Joint Committee that discusses the ICMS Subsidy Provisional Measure (MP) may vote on the rapporteur's report. Nominees for the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) will be reviewed in the Senate's Economic Affairs Committee (CAE). On Thursday, a session in Congress has been sche...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2023

CHRISTMAS SHOPPING Taking advantage of the relaxed climate of year-end parties and trips, politicians in Brasília are racing to misuse the public purse, by relaxing the rules that guarantee impersonality, transparency, competition, and fiscal discipline. Even the phantoms of the “creative acco...

Economics: Data shows strong economic growth even as rising public deficit and debt pose future problems
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2023

As we look back at the indicators released over the course of November, the headline note came from the GDP report for the third quarter. The definitive data showed continuing momentum through an eighth consecutive quarter and prompted many to adopt a brighter outlook. The GDP numbers for the thi...

An encouraging print in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices increased by 3.3%, m/m, in November, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%-3.8.%. Twelve-month CPI-inflation nevertheless edged up to 62%, or to its highest level since the beginning of the year, up from 61.4% a month ago. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.8%, with the 12-month...

The rapporteur of the ICMS MP is expected to submit his report this week, the STF should adjudicate the ADI on the State-Owned Companies Law, and President Lula will participate in the Mercosur Summit on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2023

The rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), may submit his report this week. According to the schedule, the presentation to the Joint Committee is set for December 6, and the vote is scheduled for the following day. On Wednesday, December 6, t...

Politics: Latest effort to stack the Supreme Court falls short, but AMLO and Sheinbaum prepare Plans C and D
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2023

There is no reason to believe that President López Obrador is going to abandon his longstanding campaign to bring the Judicial Branch under his control and, barring that, to hamstring it and starve it of funding. The latest effort in that latter regard is his administration’s attempt to dissolve ...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone easing
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Dec 2023

1. The coalition is finding it difficult to reduce civilian expenditure (coalition agreements, especially), as it approved additional spending for the war. 2. A dent in fiscal credibility in 2024 could result in a weaker shekel and postpone monetary easing. 3. Private consumption declined s...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Following the return 116 hostages, negotiations broke down in receiving the remaining 136 hostages. Israel renewed its offensive and Hamas fired missiles into Israel. Hezbollah fired as well and Israel retaliated. It is not clear whether this renewed pressure will result in the resum...

Russia expanding military 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

On December 1 Putin signed a presidential decree about this saying the expansion was needed due to the threat from Ukraine and NATO's ''aggressive activity'' seeking more members. The decree says there shall be no amendments to the draft system. There was a huge draft in 2022 of men who had alrea...

Self-rated poor families, a rising trend?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

While the Philippines surpassed the dismal 2nd quarter 4.3% GDP growth with a 5.9% performance in the 3rdquarter, the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from September 28-October 1, 2023 suggest the fruits of economic growth may not be spreading around evenly. Se...

GDP grew 8.8% up to June. Our forecasts remain positive but lower for 2023. 2024 will be a quasi-stagnant economy after the closing of the mining operation
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023 · 2 responses

The GDP growth rate until June reached 8.8%. For now, without knowing the complete GDP data, which has not been published by the statistical institute, we maintain our annual forecast at 5.5% due to a deceleration in the third quarter and disruptions in agricultural production, tourism, and the C...

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