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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The economy continued to expand in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that the Russian economy continued to grow in October as the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 5.9% and 7.7% in 10M23 and October alone. However, as happened previously on many occasions, this growth appeared uneven across various segments. Agriculture grew by 1.9% a...

Freedoms will drive outcomes in 2024
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 29 Nov 2023

The sanctions relief begun in late 2022 is gradually adding oxygen to the Venezuelan economy. While it’s no panacea, it does translate into higher output for the joint ventures in which Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom hold minority stakes, and therefore stronger export revenue and foreign...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Nov 17 Economy Ministry: The draft of the new Tax Code, which is due to come into force in Kazakhstan in 2025, includes the introduction of a two-step scale of personal income tax rates for salaries Ministry of Transport: Kazakhstan is ready to transfer two of its ports - Aktau and Kuryk - to the...

Divergent views on how the war might end
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The lack of significant land gains in Ukraine's 2023 summer counter-offensive has sparked intensive discussions about a potential stalemate in the war, and the West's vision for its conclusion. General Valery Zaluzhny's essay in The Economist, widely interpreted as an admission that the front has...

The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidies bill should be installed, the Senate may vote on the sports betting and offshore funds bills, and Deputy Forte is expected to submit his final report on the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The Joint Committee is scheduled to be installed today to analyze provisional measure 1185/23, which deals with ICMS subsidies. The rapporteur will be Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG). The Ministry of Finance is negotiating changes to the text. The bill that deals with the taxation of offshore...

Iudex locuta, causa finita…ma non troppo
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

After a week of demonstrations in front of the Supreme Court building in Panama City, road blockades, and media pressure, on the early morning of Tuesday (a holiday in Panama), the CSJ declared Law 406, which approved the contract between the government and Minera Panama (a subsidiary of Canada's...

Western nations suspect Turkey of conniving at sanctions busting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

On November 27 The Financial Times reported that Turkey's sale of militarily applicable goods to Russia has shot up since 2022. There are 45 items that are dual use. They are sold to Russia directly or indirectly. The explanation is that they have a civilian use as well as a military one. The ite...

The MNB is under friendly fire: rating agencies appear to be worried
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A few days ago, we wrote in our monthly report that the government may step up supporting the MNB's strong forint policy towards end-2023, because of its desire to present a materially decreasing debt ratio. But so far, actual events do not seem to support our forecast. The MNB has received criti...

The STF decided that the government can pay off civil liens with extraordinary credit, Lula confirmed Dino’s appointment to the STF, and the vote on the offshore tax bill was postponed to tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Yesterday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) formed a majority in the adjudication of the Direct Act of Unconstitutionality (ADI) on civil liens. Eight ministers voted to allow the federal government to pay the stock of civil liens with extraordinary credit. Yesterday, President Lula confirmed the ...

Economics: Construction boosts GDP growth in the third quarter, while manufacturing stagnates
MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Third quarter GDP data released Friday was closely in line with what Inegi estimated roughly a month earlier in the preliminary figures, with the economy growing an annual 3.3% and a cumulative 3.6% for the first nine months of the year. Growth continues to be driven, above all, by the constructi...

Peru: Attorney General under pressure to resign
PERU · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

This morning Attorney Marita Barreto, in charge of investigating corruption in the State, raided the homes of two close advisors of Attorney General Patricia Benavides. They found WhatsApp chats between these two advisors and several congress-members and offered evidence that Benavides had been p...

Growth remains solid
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Indonesia's economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2023, registering growth of 4.94%, only slightly lower than the 5.17% annual growth for Q2 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 1.60%, which followed the regular cycle. While the growth rate for the Q3 w...

Politics: General presidential campaigns de facto underway as FAM campaign struggles to gain traction and MC looks for opening opportunities
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2023

According to the electoral authority’s calendar, each party’s campaign to choose its respective presidential candidate got underway November 20. But in the latest example of election law's distantly lagging political reality, those pre-campaigns have been unfolding for many months, with the two m...

Interest Rates in the USA, Term Premium and Reflections on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Since Brazil is integrated in international capital flows, the Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions must consider what happens in the United States, and to clarify the importance of this fact, nothing is better than an example. In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Federal Reserv...

Polls underscore challenges for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. Leaders in the House negotiate the Tax Reform voting schedule. The Federal Senate may vote on the offshore and sports betting bills. The National Congress may analyze presidential vetoes. This week's Talking ...

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