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Lula deepens the international agenda with China and CELAC, Congress slows as key leaders travel abroad, and the INSS crisis and Supreme Court tax rulings shape the domestic focus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2025

After a busy week in Brasília, the coming days are expected to be quieter. President Lula, ministers, and several members of Congress are attending events abroad. President Lula, who was in Russia last week, arrived in China on Saturday and will take part in the 4th China-CELAC Forum. CELAC is th...

Russian macro: Evolving foreign trade payments trim budget revenues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025

A few days ago, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported that 4M25 federal budget revenues reached R12.274 trln, i.e., up by 5.0% y-o-y. The figure appears unimpressive amid over 10% y-o-y inflation. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues shrank by 10.3% y-o-y to a mere R3.727. Non-O&G revenues grew by 13.5%...

Is the worst over yet?
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2025

While it is not officially announced, Turkey’s number one public enemy, PKK almost certainly said farewell to arms. While from the standpoint of the military-intelligence establishment, the terror threat will not cease until Syrian Kurds dissolve into the Syrian central administration, Messrs. Er...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits widen, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP slows, OPEC+ speeds taper, Flynas IPO announced
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will boost output by 0.4 b/d in June, but the oil price still rose to $64 on US-China talks. * The US will fast-track some GCC investments and could ease AI chip export limitations. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -5% of ...

The government responds to the INSS fraud after a viral backlash, the STF prepares to rule on key tax cases, and Lula travels to Russia and China with a diplomatic agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2025

The government reacted, albeit belatedly, and announced yesterday, May 8, a series of measures being taken to address the fraud at the National Social Security Institute (INSS) and to help beneficiaries recover the amounts that were unduly deducted. INSS President Gilberto Waller announced that 2...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian Dream in the driver's seat six months before the local elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 May 2025

Six months after the Oct Parliamentary vote, the post-election environment in Georgia has evolved in line with my (at the time) counter-consensus forecast, in which I argued before the ballot day: "In short, in my view, there will be a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for G...

Disappointing CPI data for April: cap on retail margins did not work quite as suggested previously
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2025

The headline rate was 0.2% mom, 4.2% yoy, the latter down from 4.7% yoy in March, core inflation was 0.1% mom, 5% yoy, also down from 5.7% yoy in the previous month: So, it looks like the spike seen in the first two months of this year has been overcome, both headline and core fell neatly, and th...

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2025

Copom provoked no surprise with its decision to hike the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 14.25% to 14.75% per year. However, more than the decision itself, the main interest of “Copom Watchers” lay in the possible signaling regarding the next steps in moneta...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2025

The sentiment on local financial markets changed to less optimistic amid the May holiday period. On the one hand, investors turned more skeptical about the possibility of de-escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. Hence, the previously anticipated “peace premium” may cause an asset price correct...

Negotiations intensify over income tax reform, the Lower House approves a revised PPP bill, and the INSS fraud scandal escalates as the opposition pushes a CPI and the TCU demands accountability from the current administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2025

The bill that grants an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month is already generating intense negotiations in Congress. In a meeting with lawmakers yesterday, the bill’s rapporteur, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), heard suggestions for a full correction of the income tax...

April CPI out tomorrow: prepare for the headline rate deeply below 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2025 · 1 response

The headline rate went up to 5.6% yoy in February, from where it came down to 4.7% yoy in March. Against that, a further drop to below 4% in April may look extraordinary. But circumstances are extraordinary, too. For one thing, fuel prices (7.3% of the CPI basket) dropped substantially again in A...

Thoughts on the trade talks (a win-win?) and China's stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 May 2025

China and the U.S. plan to hold two days of trade talks in Switzerland starting May 10 for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second administration. The Financial Times noted that “The meeting will be the first high-level interaction between the two sides since Vice President Han Zheng...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge gradually weakens on lower oil, but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 May 2025

In recent days, the Kazakh authorities published macroeconomic statistics that shed additional light on the country’s situation (which looks not bad at all) and possible challenges ahead. Despite accelerated economic growth in 1Q25, it looks as though tax collection wasn't sufficient, not only in...

The Special Committee on income tax reform was installed, the Lower House approved an increase in the number of representatives and prepares to vote on the new PPP framework, and the Senate to vote on a re-election ban for executive posts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2025

Yesterday, the Special Committee tasked with analyzing the bill on the income tax was installed. The work plan for discussing the income tax reform (PL 1087/25) foresees that the report will be submitted by June 27. The rapporteur, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), expects the text to be voted on in th...

US, EU trade policy measures work against economic growth in Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2025

Well, this looks like a series of unfavourable news now. Here is a list of what we mean: 1. A few days ago, Mr. Trump's 25% tariffs on the imports of car components took effect, following a similar measure on the imports of complete cars, implemented one month earlier. Naturally, these moves affe...

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