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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

The MP on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF expires this week, the government continues negotiations on the fiscal framework bill, and President Lula meets with presidents of South American countries
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The Provisional Measure (MP) that instituted the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) expires this week. As it is being analyzed with a constitutional urgent status, it will block the agenda of the plenary of the House on June 21. Negotiations on the fiscal framew...

Russian macro: gradual de-Westernization is on the way
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...

Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2023 · 2 responses

With this report we introduce our Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) service. In order to better grasp the economic positioning of the CCA region, which is less well known and fair to say under-researched relative to other frontier markets, we first analyze it within the broader and better-known CIS...

Another encouraging growth figure
INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2023 GDP growth at 5.03% Y/Y, slightly above the 5.01% annual growth rate of Q4 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy contracted by 0.92%, which followed the normal pattern. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2023 was transp...

Time to return what belongs to us
UKRAINE · Report · 30 May 2023

The commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has shared a video on his social media accounts announcing that it’s time to reclaim what belongs to us. His message succinctly captures the essence of the current situation in Ukrainian society, both on the frontlin...

Further tightening will be data dependent
ISRAEL · Report · 30 May 2023

1. Last week the shekel weakened sharply on concerns regarding geopolitical risks and the possible renewed unilateral judicial overhaul. 2. A weaker shekel will translate into higher inflation (we see a 15% pass-through). 3. Unless this trend is reversed, the likelihood of a rate hike in J...

Talks unlikely to restart soon
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

Asked by an interviewer about the reasons for the Central Bank’s “stubbornness” in keeping the interest rate high, Campos Neto responded that a real interest rate for 10 years of around 6% a year has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is instead the fault of fiscal policy. Unfortunately, due...

Further tightening will be data dependent
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 May 2023

Rates reach 4.75% with mixed signals Last week’s 0.25% hike was in line with expectations on the back of strong economic activity, a tight labor market and sticky/broad-based inflation above target. Following the rate hike, Governor Yaron was interviewed and conveyed a dovish message stating that...

Ready for another five years with the Chief?
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2023 · 1 response

This is the first of several Market Briefs I shall be posting regarding Turkey’s historic election. It is brief and mostly aims at dispensing with the formality of notifying our audience about the results. There are three major uncertainties, which I need to resolve in the coming days in order to...

Ukrainian attacks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2023

On May 27 drones hit an oil pipeline's admin block near Pskov, Russia. This was announced by he local governor. It is believed that the real prospect was a pumping station It is rumored that there was an attack on an oil refinery. There are ever more Ukrainian drone attacks. However, they are doi...

Russian city hit by drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2023

On May 26 Krasnodar was attacked by two drones. This city is the deepest in Russia that Ukraine has attacked. It is 300 km from the border. The Governor of the Region made a statement saying that both drones had crashed and that there were no casualties. It was reported that a Ukrainian drone was...

Who is the bull, and who the matador?
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 May 2023

Most political and technical observers of Congress found the approval of the president’s healthcare reform initiative in the first committee of the House of Representatives disconcerting. The key political parties had expressed deep objections, and initially claimed they’d refuse to support it. B...

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