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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 8
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Hungary databank Jul 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russian city hit by drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2023
On May 26 Krasnodar was attacked by two drones. This city is the deepest in Russia that Ukraine has attacked. It is 300 km from the border. The Governor of the Region made a statement saying that both drones had crashed and that there were no casualties. It was reported that a Ukrainian drone was...
Who is the bull, and who the matador?
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 May 2023
Most political and technical observers of Congress found the approval of the president’s healthcare reform initiative in the first committee of the House of Representatives disconcerting. The key political parties had expressed deep objections, and initially claimed they’d refuse to support it. B...
Que sera, sera (whatever will be, will be)
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2023
The politics author shares his latest take on the potential outcome of this Sunday’s runoff, the econ author takes a quick look at the latest reserve developments, among a few other things, and our cosmic strategist shares some thoughts on the ever-growing pressures in the currency market. Ple...
The role of the US dollar in anchoring the global trading system
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 May 2023
Special points to highlight in this issue: * Trade, inflation, retail sales and industrial production data all pointed in the same way in April. China’s much-anticipated “consumption revival” still hasn’t started. All the data suggest that Chinese household income isn’t rising fast enough to ...
The CPMI on the January 8 attacks was installed, the government is working toward preventing the Environment Ministry from losing many of its responsibilities, and the House approved the urgent status of the bill on the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2023
The Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks was finally installed yesterday. The president of the committee will be Deputy Arthur Maia (União-BA), and the rapporteur will be Senator Elizabeth Gamma (PSD-MA). A number of responsibilities of the Ministry of the Envi...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi warns oil short sellers, S&P expects a balanced Dubai budget, record demand for Adnoc Logistics IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 May 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister warned short sellers as bearish bets on oil reached the highest in over a decade. * Flights resumed between Qatar and Bahrain, and their frequency will increase to at least 6 daily. * $8bn in financ...
Better than expected Q1 GDP does not (yet) override projected stagnation
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 May 2023
The publication of March's economic activity index (EMAE) allows us to calculate a close proxy of the GDP data that will be officially published on June 22. EMAE´s 1.5% y/y growth, taking the 3-month moving average, suggests a significantly better result for Q1 2023 growth than the -0.7% y/y expe...
A unanimous decision to hike interest rates by 50 bps by the SA Reserve Bank as the rand remains weak
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 May 2023
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points—the second of this magnitude after it had slowed its rate of increase to 25 bps in January 2023. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Commit...
Budget deficit widens in April amid amendments and weak tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 May 2023
In 4M23, the deficit of the republican budget reached KZT1.355 trln amid accelerated growth of expenditures. In 1Q23, this deficit accounted for KZT0.830 trln. Once again, the government amended the 2023 republican budget and increased its spending from KZT20.6 trln to KZT21.6 trln. This amount d...
Russia to deploy nukes in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2023
On May 25 Belarus signed an agreement about Russian nuclear weapons being stationed in Belarus. The Russian news agency TASS reported this. Russia shall still control its non-strategic nuclear arms in Belarus. The Russian Defense Minister was in Belarus to sign the agreement with his Belarusian c...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2023
After some appreciation at the beginning of May, the ruble returned to the R/$80 area. The uncertainty remains high, and the recent package of sanctions confirmed that pressure on Russia will continue to increase. Many investors believe new restrictions on the financial sector and the “unfriendly...
The Central Bank announces the possibility of adopting measures to revitalize the economy in the near future
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 May 2023
In a conference at the Association of Industries of the Northern Region, the Governor of the Central Bank indicated that it is highly probable that inflation will enter the target range of 4% ± 1% at the end of this same month of May, before what was planned. According to Héctor Valdez Albizu, "t...
Sailing into the unknown
CHILE · Report · 25 May 2023
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) for March confirms the ongoing decline in consumption, and stagnation in economic activity. National accounts figures for Q1 2023 highlight the weakness of consumption in a context of high inflation, elevated interest rates and weak consumer confide...
Past the peak of the inflation and interest rate cycle
HUNGARY · Report · 24 May 2023
Following a peak in January and roughly unchanged levels in the rest of Q1, CPI-inflation fell materially in April at last. This new pace of downward movement is likely to become a trend in the next two months and to accelerate further in Q3. We still believe that single-digit inflation by Decemb...
Russian PM in China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2023
Mikhail Mishustin spoke in Beijing when meeting his Chinese analogue. He said that relations with China are closer than ever and this would help Russia to resist unprecedented economic pressure. China maintains it is neutral over the Ukraine conflict. Mishustin went to a business forum in Shangh...