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Azerbaijan expels 4 Iranian diplomats amid assassination claims
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

On April 6 Azerbaijan made the move. It has accused the diplomats of spying and gave them 48 hours to leave. Azerbaijan arrested 6 of its own citizens that day and said that they had conspired to overthrow the government and establish a theocracy. Iran is a shariat state whereas Azerbaijan is sec...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

Mar 24 SOCAR: The Azerbaijani company has started the transit of Kazakh oil from Tengiz via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). The framework agreement between SOCAR and KMG assumes the transit of 1.5 mln tons of oil per year Mar 27 Government: Kazakhstan from April 1, 2023, introduces mandatory regis...

LatAm Webinar Replay: Reforms Galore - Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Affonso Pastore, Robert Funk, Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Gonzalez discussing how proposed reforms to pension systems, fiscal rules, and tax policies are likely to impact Latin America's largest markets in an event moder...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...

Russia political, pandemic update: The geopolitical performance drags on; actors repeat themselves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

It looks as though the consequences of the current standoff between Russia and the West (including Ukraine) will be a legacy that current leaders on both sides will leave to new generations of politicians. It appears that policymakers of all sorts are enjoying the situation they designed and deve...

Ukrainian President visits Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2023

On April 5 Zelensky was in Warsaw to meet his Polish opposite number. He also addressed some rallies. There are 1 million Ukrainian refugees in Poland: more than in any other country. Poland is the only country that Zelensky has visited twice since the war began. He has worn a military uniform ev...

Minister Silveira criticized Petrobras’s import parity price, tomorrow is a federal holiday (Good Friday), and the STF should issue a final decision next week on the transfer of ICMS tax credits between states
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

The Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, stated that Petrobras's import parity price, the PPI, is "absurd" and that he "has already made some changes". The statement caused repercussions in the market and the company. Next week will be hectic. In addition to the change that the gover...

Very poor industry and retail sales data in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2023

Industrial output fell 4.5% yoy in February, after -3% yoy in January. In Q4 2022, when GDP fell by 0.4% qoq (and expanded by 0.8% yoy), industrial output still grew by 3.9% yoy. The government and the MNB have been expecting positive GDP growth this year on hopes of growing net exports, which in...

Scale of China-Russia censorship collaboration revealed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

On April 5 Radio Free Europe published a report showing the extent to which the two countries have been sharing strategies to control dissent and the internet as part of their partnership. Meetings took place from 2017 on. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) and Russian communications re...

Haddad said that the export tax on oil will end on June 30, Lula signed a decree on the sanitation framework, and Alckmin asked Pacheco to vote on the Legal Framework for Guarantees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Economy, Fernando Haddad, said that the export tax on oil will end on June 30 and, after that period, taxes on gasoline and ethanol will again be charged in full, making the extension of the tax unnecessary. President Lula signed a decree today to regulate the sanitatio...

Belarus training on nuclear capable missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

On April 5 Belarus announced that the training had started. This is pursuant to Russia's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This is Russia's riposte to ongoing Western aid for Ukraine. That is why Russia is very keen that the world knows about it. Belarus published photos of ...

March inflation decelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

The headline inflation rate was reported at 7.6% in March, down from 8.6% in February and is below the median analyst estimate of 8.1%. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the price level was unchanged from a month ago, due largely to a 14% drop in the item “vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas and pu...

Potential growth slows. International reserves are solid in the face of the recent external financial turmoil. The dispute between Legislative and Executive continues, raising questions about the discussion of the Minera contract.
PANAMA · Report · 04 Apr 2023

The IMF March report projects 5% GDP growth for 2023 and 4% growth thereafter. Potential growth decreases to 4% from 6%, a result of the fall in total factor productivity in recent years. The weakness of taxation performance calls for a profound reform of the system and a revision of the size and...

Finland joins NATO and Russia threatens a response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2023

On April 4 Moscow said that Finland's accession will cause a buildup of Russian forces on the Finnish border. Putin's spokesman said that there would be countermeasures because what has happened is escalatory. Russia warned NATO not to place attack weapons in Finland. Finland has a 1,300 km borde...

Haddad spoke about the government’s remedial measures yesterday, the STJ will adjudicate a matter on ICMS tax incentives this month, and the TSE reviews a case against Bolsonaro’s ticket in the last election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2023

Haddad said that the country has R$ 400 billion in incentives and tax benefits. He said he only needs an increase in revenue between R$ 110.0 billion and R$ 150 billion for the fiscal framework. According to Haddad's calculations, taxation on gambling should generate R$ 12 billion in revenue. The...

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