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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Waiting is just torture
TURKEY · Report · 02 Apr 2023

Each week brings new polls which show the Nation Alliance leader Kilicdaroglu firming his lead over incumbent Erdogan. A few experts even call him victor in the first round, which would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. However, can his former intra-party rival Muharrem Ince play the spoiler...

Policy reform notes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

Russia calls up 147,000 conscripts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 30 Putin signed the decree conscripting the 18-27 year olds for one year. Last year only 125,000 were called up at this time. The increase is said to be because the Defense Ministry has widened the parameters of those eligible. Men who would have been excluded for reasons of mental or ph...

Belarus calls for a truce in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 31 the President Lukasheno called on the warring parties to call a truce without any preconditions. He warned of the risk of escalation. Lukashenko said that the issues ought to be agreed through talks. He said that Western arms shipments were raising the chance of a nuclear war. As Bela...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco finalizes China investments, Abu Dhabi crown prince appointed, Fitch gives Qatar a positive outlook, Oman prepays $1.5bn loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has partly rebounded after Iraq temporarily halted 450k b/d in pipeline exports via Turkey. * UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all ranked in the top 25 in AT Kearney’s FDI confidence index. * Unemployment amongst Saudi nat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023 · 1 response

* The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin. * Russia places tactical nukes in Belarus, having downed a US drone. * Russia’s arms sales are down sharply but it is selling jets to Iran. * The President of Belarus visited Iran. * The President of China visited Moscow. * Ukra...

Haddad presented the details of the new fiscal framework, Justice Lewandowski’s mandate nears its end, and the text of the fiscal framework may be submitted to Congress next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023

The details of the new fiscal framework were announced. The text itself, however, should be presented next week. Some say it may actually be presented the following week due to the holiday on April 7, which should reduce the quorum in Brasilia. The mandate of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court ...

Interesting details from the new inflation report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The MNB's Q1 inflation report was released yesterday. The outlines were communicated already two days earlier, right after the Council's meeting on Tuesday. Nothing revolutionary indeed, but some of the details appear to be interesting. Here are three points on those.1. The short-term rundown of ...

The South African Reserve Bank hawkishly hikes interest rate, surprising the markets
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points- somewhat unexpectedly. This comes after the Bank had slowed its rate of increase to 25 bps in January of the current year following...

Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Petro administration’s new pension bill is potentially game-changing: fewer than 30% of Colombians of retirement age and beyond currently have access to old-age protection. Reform would generate massive movements of people and money, & create considerable fiscal impacts. Under any scenario un...

Lasso's Impeachment was Approved by the Constitutional Court
ECUADOR · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Late last night, the Constitutional Court issued a partial approval for Guillermo Lasso's impeachment accepting jugdgement for bribery and rejecting the charge of concussion.  This ruling does not make the President's situation any easier.  The ball is again in the Assembly's field in this is wha...

Haddad discusses the details of the new fiscal framework, and former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after three months in the United States
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, has a meeting this morning with the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to present the new fiscal framework. Then, along with the economic team, he will participate in a press conference to discuss the details of the framework. The text wil...

China decoupling and “Altasia”
CHINA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The economy was still on a recovery track in January-February, but a slow one. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y, up 1.1 pps from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted m/m growth rate was weak. Investment rose 5.5% y/y, up 0.4 pps from last year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment with a g...

Decent economic performance in February, inflation low in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down y-o-y by 2.2% in 2M22 and 1.8% in February. The industry was down by 2.0% and 1.7% for the same periods (also y-o-y). Note that February 2023 had fewer working days than February 2022. Hence, seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) indu...

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