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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MPC stays on hold
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

We are happy to report that there is almost nothing to report from today’s CBRT/MPC meeting. The Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 8.5%, in line with our expectation, versus a more divided set of views in the analyst community (link here). The Bank kept the sentence on the policy outloo...

The presidents of the House and Senate have not reached an agreement on the issue regarding the analysis of provisional measures, and the Central Bank maintained the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2023

Pacheco insists on following the analysis process provided by the Constitution, which states a Joint Committee should be created. A joint committee to analyze provisional measures would have 13 federal deputies and 13 senators. Arthur Lira argues that this distribution is disproportionate since t...

Monetary Board raises interest rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

As Governor Felipe Medalla signaled earlier, the Monetary Board raised its set of policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight borrowing rate to 6.25% effective tomorrow. Per the Governor, the decision to increase policy rates was mainly influenced by still rising core inflation in February, stil...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to remain stable in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Mar 2023

Two weeks ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan published its bi-monthly monetary policy report and enclosed its updated macroeconomic forecast for 2023 and beyond. Apart from the usual baseline scenario, the regulator considered two others, the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic” scenarios. From t...

More drone strikes as Xi leaves Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2023

On March 22 the Chinese President flew home. There was a drone strike on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol that Russia claimed to have fended off. Russia said no damage was inflicted by the drones. The Russian Governor of Crimea said it is false to say, as some have, that people are leaving Cr...

Haddad said the new fiscal framework should be submitted to Congress after Lula returns from China, the government is looking to increase its participation in Eletrobras, and the interest rate decision will be announced today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, confirmed that the new fiscal framework will be submitted to Congress only after Lula returns from his trip to China. The framework is expected to be submitted during the week of April 3. Yesterday, the press reported that the Office of the Chief of Staff...

Big blows to Erdogan, a “thin” one for Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023 · 4 responses

BAD PUN WARNING: “İnce” is the Turkish word for “thin”, which also happens to be the surname of former CHP member and presidential candidate Mr. Muharrem Ince. Get it? Turkey’s competing political alliances; the governing Republican and main opposition Nation; are facing hurdles in their sweat-so...

Japanese PM in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 21 Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit. He met Zelensky and visited Bucha where Russian troops allegedly massacred civilians in 2022.  Kishida reaffirmed Japan's support for Ukrainian independence and its sovereignty over all its land. Japan has sent military aid to Ukraine. Japan has a ...

Foreign policy: one strike right, one strike left
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

In recent days, Hungary continued its usual policy outside the mainstream of the EU and NATO, in a way that could be characterised best as uneasy cooperation, an extremely delicate and risky process in our view. For one issue, Fidesz has announced a decision to support Finland's NATO membership, ...

Boluarte survives; focus shifts to the economy; BCRP to cut rates in April
PERU · Report · 21 Mar 2023 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on our new forecasts. We first discuss how long President Dina Boluarte is likely to remain in power; then assess whether the Peruvian economy has fallen into recession; and, finally discuss our outlook for policy rate management by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (...

A very soft landing, with plenty of turbulence
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Chilean economic activity has been moving away from the protracted decline observed in the second half of 2022. The Monthly Economic Activity Index surprised positively in January. The breakdown by sectors showed widespread improvement. Nevertheless, services continued to lead the way. The real q...

Drone strikes on Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 21 Russia claimed the attack hit a civilian target and wounded one person. However, Ukraine said that the strike hit Kalibr missiles that were being transported by rail. If that is true then Russia is partly correct inasmuch as the railroad is civilian infrastructure. There have been no ...

Haddad presented the general outline of the new fiscal framework, VP Alckmin criticized the high interest rate in the country, and a reduction in the payroll loan interest rates had the opposite effect
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Haddad said he fulfilled the presentation schedule for the leaders of the House and Senate, in addition to the presidents of both houses. Both Pacheco and Arthur Lira have reportedly welcomed the proposal. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said that an interest rate of 8% above inflation hampers con...

Economics: Continuing export strength potentially threatened by the direction of US demand
MEXICO · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Economic activity data for January and February has delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction, as have consumer and business confidence indicators. US industrial production, with its decisive incidence on Mexican manufacturing, has been slowing over the past three mon...

Chinese President in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 20 President Xi visited Putin. Russia is very glad to receive him. Xi said his visit is about ''friendship, cooperation and peace.'' Xi published an article in a Russian newspaper saying, ''I look forward to working with Putin to jointly adopt a new vision.'' China claims to be neutral i...

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