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Russia agrees to continue BSGI
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2023

On March 13 Russia agreed with the United Nations to allow the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) to be extended. However, this is only for 60 days. It had been anticipated that the BSGI would be extended for rather long. BSGI is vital for food security in the Global South. Bangladesh, Egypt, Leba...

Economics: Core inflation remains high in February
MEXICO · Report · 13 Mar 2023

On Thursday, March 10, inflation figures were released showing that the index increased 7.6% at an annual rate. This represented a reduction with respect to the previous month (7.91%) and to what the market expected, but only due to the non-core component, since the core index continues to regist...

Navigating with Instruments in a Dense Fog
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Mar 2023

When the government’s economic team is specialized in sending noise instead of signals generated by a good diagnosis, good results cannot be expected. For 2023, we expect GDP growth of 1%, a major deceleration with regard to the result in 2022, of 2.9%. This expansion will only be attained due to...

Constitutional illiterates
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Mar 2023

An ad hoc commission formed and led mainly by legislators from the UNES and the Social Christian Party investigated a case of corruption in the electricity sector. Although the case has roots in the government of Rafael Correa, this commission decided to focus on the current presidential period, ...

Politics: Border violence, blame for illicit fentanyl trade stokes crisis in US-Mexican security collaboration
MEXICO · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Mexican-US relations have become strained in the past few weeks. While there have been disagreements in the recent past over immigration, economic issues, Washington’s perceived intervention in Latin America, and human rights issues, recent developments in security and anti-drug efforts have put ...

The PT and fuel and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Fernando Haddad presents the new fiscal framework to President Lula. The Lower House decides leadership for standing committees. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee votes on the request to invite the Central Bank president to speak on interest rates. The Federal Supreme Court may conclu...

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to remain elevated in 2023, leaving limited room for base rate cuts
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s National Bank recently released its updated macroeconomic forecast and it expects the country’s economy can expand within the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2023. The regulator expects the same rates for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, quoting it as an equilibrium growth trajectory for Kazakhsta...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive 
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2023

1. External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive as the goods/services surplus continues to decline. 2. The shekel will continue to react more to global equity movements and the domestic uncertainty regarding the judicial measures. 3. Tax revenues continue to decline and are likely to...

Haddad will submit the bill that deals with the new fiscal framework, the PDT, PSB and Solidariedade discuss forming a party federation, and the CAE will review a request to summon Roberto Campos Neto
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2023

In an interview with CNN Brasil, Haddad said that the new fiscal framework will be a combination of mechanisms to monitor public accounts. According to him, the new rule will not be based on public debt. The PDT, PSB and Solidariedade leaders will meet on Tuesday, March 14, to discuss the formati...

SVB and Asian banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Generally, contagion risk from the Silicon Valley Bank situation is minimal—apart from the issue of “animal spirits…” What are the risks that could affect Asian banks? * Excessive concentration of digital assets in the banking system. However, most digital start-ups obtain funding from ventu...

Israeli savings institutions shift more investments abroad
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2023

In January, Israeli savings institutions were net FX purchasers of 4.5bn USD, buying assets abroad totally 3.8bn and reducing their FX hedge by 0.7bn. Their FX exposure increased to 18% of all assets under management from 16.5%. This is a significant jump to a level not witnessed in the past two ...

Kilicdaroglu has wind in wings
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Your beloved Politics Author a.k.a. Atilla Yesilada is still convalescing from gastric surgery, which is the reason for his absence from our Weekly Report. Since my work hours are still quite restricted, I shall instead analyze the developments after Kilicdaroglu’s nomination briefly, inviting ou...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023

The goods/services surplus declined in Q422 Although the headline current surplus improved in Q422, the more important breakdown of good/services account reflect a declining surplus to 3.4bn USD in Q4 from 3.9bn in Q3. FDI into Israel surged in Q422 to 9.4bn USD compared to 6.8bn in Q3. 2023 will...

A dull and short weekly, for a change...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2023

Our politics author, who is in convalescence but doing well, plans an update on the political scene in the next 24-48 hours. In his absence -- and with elections now almost certainly set for May 14, we report the latest state of affairs in the polls, no matter how rudimentary the polls might be. ...

Georgia drops controversial legislation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2023

On March 10 the foreign agent bill was defeated. The proposed legislation caused massive protests. It had been compared to Russian legislation that obliged those who receive foreign funding to comply with onerous registration regulations. The police had trouble containing protestors against the b...

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