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Lula will meet with the Minister of Communications today, the government may launch its debt renegotiation program this week, and Mercosur and EU negotiators will discuss a free trade agreement in Buenos Aires
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

The Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho – from the União Brasil party – is being accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Even the pr...

No BoI FX intervention in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

The Bank of Israel did not sell FX at all in February. The reserves did decline by 4.7ml USD due mostly to revaluation (global dollar appreciation). This underlines the BoI policy of avoiding FX intervention unless there is tremendous market dislocation in the short term. The weakening of the she...

Inflation risks shift from wages to FX volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Mar 2023

1. Business sentiment and outlook remained positive in February. 2. Wage growth moderated in Q422, and a modest public sector wage agreement reduces the chances of a wage-price spiral. 3. The major risk to inflation remains shekel depreciation, which will be dependent on the judicial measu...

Armenian and Azerbaijani skirmish leaves 5 dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

On March 5 men were shot dead in Nagorno Karabakh - a region of Azerbaijan that is controlled by Armenia. Armenia claimed some of its police officers were ambushed by the Azerbaijani Army. Azerbaijan confirmed the shooting incident but said that its soldiers were killed when they attempted to pre...

Inflation risks shift from wages to FX volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Business sentiment remains strong The Business Tendency Survey in February reflects strong and steady growth with some improvement in the expectation components as well. The expectation for change in employment also improved in general, and in the hi-tech service sector (information and communica...

Turkey’s other quake
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2023

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, b...

Moody's did not review Hungary's sovereign credit rating last week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Moody's passed its first pre-announced review date of this year for Hungary's sovereign credit rating on Friday, March 3 without actually doing a review. As a matter of fact, this sounds like good news, as there seemed to be a realistic chance for a negative rating step, in the form of lowering t...

Russian Defense Minister visits Donetsk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2023

On March 4 Sergei Shoigu's visit was to boost morale. Russian media reported that Shoigu was inspecting the front in Donetsk. Bakhmut is in Donetsk. The head of Wagner Group said on March 2 that the fall of Bakhmut is imminent and that the Ukrainians control only one road into the city. In Februa...

GULF WEEKLY: Adnoc Gas IPO soars, Bahrain MPs reject 2021 accounts, Russian firms in UAE sanctioned, Saudi FM visits Ukraine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran is receiving a visit from the IAEA chief as worries grow about its uranium stockpile. * The first projects in KSA’s Shareek private investment scheme were announced, mainly by SOEs. * ACWA Power closed financing for ...

Better than expected, but still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2023

Consumer prices rose by 3.15%, m/m, in February, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%. Our forecast, at around 4.5%, was even higher, which was largely based on our assumption of quicker price increases in service categories. As a result, 12-month CPI rate eased further to 55.2%, y/y, t...

Down the rabbit hole (again)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

We enter 2023 as if going down a rabbit hole, not quite sure if surprises ahead will be the pleasant or biting sort. Although global growth is still expected to weaken, China’s re-opening offers hope of larger rebound, especially in tourism. Too, although financial conditions remain tight, infl...

Is PM Orbán cautiously distancing himself from Moscow?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 1, the Russian government issued a decree to ban visa-free travel by Hungarian diplomats to Russian territory, "until Hungary does not stop breaching the provisions of the underlying bilateral agreement". It is not immediately clear in what way Hungary is breaching the agreement in quest...

LAST MINUTE: Aksener pulls out of the Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023 · 2 responses

I’m not in the business of sharing breaking news with our audience, but this is so important that I decided to do so before I can gather my head and come up with a conclusion about election scenarios. After a six-hour meeting on Thursday it looked like the six leaders of the Nation Alliance had a...

Russia claims Ukraine is raiding across the border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 2 Russia's TASS news agency said that a small Ukrainian Army unit crossed the frontier and shot civilians. These fighters were mostly in civilian clothes. Russia has published photos and videos which purport to show Ukrainians holding flags near Bryansk. Some of these images have been ge...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

Russian financial markets remain nervous. As the West imposed a next-in-turn package of sanctions last week and announced an intention to impose a "secondary sanctions" mechanism (i.e., tightening enforcement of the already imposed sanctions) market sentiment was negatively impacted. Markets also...

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