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Russia struggles with inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

On May 13 the PM laid into businesses for driving inflation up due to excessive profits. He said the government might have to take measures to cap prices. He accused business of avarice. The recovery is in jeopardy and the Kremlin is worried about the impact of inflation on the fall 2021 election...

Putin's Ukrainian ally charged with high treason
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

On May 11 Viktor Medvedchuk was charged with treason along with Taras Kozak. Both men are politicians for a political party called Opposition Platform for Life. Medvedchuk has been subject to sanctions by his own government since February 2021 on suspicion of funding terrorism. Medvedchuk's home ...

Claim of Unconstitutionality of New Education Bill
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 May 2021

The Constitutional Court received yesterday a claim of unconstitutionality of the new education bill. The claim brilliantly explains the legal violations this bill exhibits and also provides a complete and fair explanation of its negative fiscal and economic implications. This claim was submitted...

Strategic regime moderation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2021

Maduro’s government has signaled a major shift in stance and strategy in the last several weeks. Most importantly, it agreed to a legal process for renewing the five-member board of the National Electoral Council that resulted in the designation of two opposition-aligned members. Maduro has al...

Media focus on Covid CPI testimony, and the Lower House to vote on important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2021

​The media should closely cover the president of the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa) Antônio Barra Torres’ testimony in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) today. The focus will be on his differences with President Bolsonaro, especially when it comes to vaccines, chloro...

Russia considering tax reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2021

On May 11 the Duma passed a bill ending Russia's bilateral tax treaty with the Netherlands. Attempts to negotiate a new tax agreement had come to nought. Yandex and X5 Retail Group are both based in the Netherlands. It looks as though in January 2022 these companies will have to pay tax in both j...

Russia's oil reserves might run out in 2080
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2021

On May 11 the Ministry of Natural Resources said that the country's oil reserves will last until 2080. However, gas will last until 2124. There might be more hyrdocarbons than this but they have not been found.Prospecting in the Arctic could lead to more finds. Rosneft is exploring there. A USD 1...

Erratic control
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2021

Inflation sped up sharply in April, to 27 percent month-on-month from 11 percent in March. It was driven up primarily by sharp dollar strengthening in bolivar terms (+36 percent) despite slow public spending and money supply. We think that dollar prices were responding to the March surge in publi...

CPI-inflation up sharply, exceeds analyst expectations in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 May 2021

This morning, April CPI-inflation was reported at 0.8% mom, 5.1% yoy, the latter sharply up from 3.7% yoy in March. The headline rate was pushed up very substantially by rising fuel prices, which went up by 39.2% yoy in April after +17.7% yoy, despite a 1.2% mom decrease in the month, i.e. essent...

Environmental licensing bill set for a vote in the Lower House, and more testimony in the Covid CPI in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2021

​Today, the Lower House votes on a bill that deals with environmental licensing, which is especially important for the infrastructure sector. The bill defines the rules businesses must follow when conducting environmental projects, for example, deadlines, environmental impact studies, analysis pr...

China’s Credit Guarantee Funds and risk
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 May 2021

China is pursuing two contradictory goals simultaneously. One calls for throttling back credit to risky parts of the financial system. The second is the creation of a default mechanism for ailing companies that in some cases includes state assistance. The policies are designed to continue to inje...

Q1 GDP down by 4.2%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 May 2021

The on the ground feedback we were getting of the economy’s performance leading up to today’s GDP announcement had suggested a more buoyant economy than the reported 4.2% year on year (yoy) contraction. The headline number implies that GDP grew by only 0.3% quarter on quarter, or an annualized ra...

Politics: The outgoing Congress - what it achieved and what to expect
MEXICO · Report · 10 May 2021

The first round of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s three years of changes to the country’s laws and constitution ended on April 30, as the outgoing Chamber of Deputies assuredly will never meet again, and the full Congress convenes on September 1. The initial package of reforms was far-re...

Economics: Continuing weakness at Pemex and CFE could further squeeze public finance
MEXICO · Report · 10 May 2021

Roughly a month ago Pemex unfurled a revised Business Plan for the coming years that significantly scaled back production targets except when it comes to its forced-yet-troubled march to make Mexico self-sufficient in the refining of petroleum products. Strikingly, the text and other management s...

Initial assessment of the Covid CPI and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Important issues such as environmental licensing and a bill on the electricity sector are on the agenda in the Lower House. The Senate may vote on blocking price increases for medication and on Pronampe. The Covid CPI proceeds with testimony throughout the week. Demonstrations in support of the g...

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