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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP & budget, Dubai recovery signs, new Kuwaiti cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * 2021 oil demand was revised down further, only making up about 60% of the 2020 decline. * Iranian statements were supportive of a deal with Biden but the execution of a jo...

Covid’s second wave has peaked, no veto on the EU budget
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

The Covid restrictions introduced in November seem to be working, even though the health care sector is missing an outright debacle only rather narrowly. But the number of daily new infections peaked in early December and has been decreasing ever since. Improvement is only initial and limited for...

Four predictions for China in 2021
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

We make four predictions for China in 2021: * Weakening of the RMB * Weaker economic conditions * Real deleveraging * Pressure on ​local bonds.

Legislative update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

Congress adjourns for the Christmas holidays starting tomorrow, having passed not just the P4.5 trillion 2021 budget but measures extending to end-2021 the validity of this year’s budget and the Bayanihan 2 Act. The latter means that government is expected to miss spending targets this year but w...

Putin urges food price cut as economy struggles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2020

Putin called upon stores to reduce food prices. Unemployment was up to 6.3% in October. Salaries have been slashed by 5% in 2020.The price of sugar rose 70% from January to November 2020. Other basic foods have seen price rises only a little less drastic.The government has resisted a second lockd...

Demand-side reform and long-term GDP growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Dec 2020 · 3 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * In its meeting last Friday the Politburo coined a new term, "demand-side reform", as something it would implement along with the “supply-side reforms” it has long promised. This is probably going to be a very important policy innovation that finall...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Almost simultaneous electoral events organized by the Maduro regime and the democratic opposition revealed two grave trends: voting is no longer an efficient means to express the will of the people in Venezuela, and the population is barely connected to politics and political leadership. Moreover...

Nord Stream 2 construction hampered by technical difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Russia is determined to complete the undersea gas pipeline to Germany in 2021. US sanctions have meant that most suitable ships cannot be hired for this.A Russian nuclear powered ship due to take part in the construction cannot participate in the project due to suffering damage. It needs repairs....

Economy rebounds despite political headwinds
PERU · Report · 16 Dec 2020

A month after the mid-November political crisis that led to street protests and the election of the caretaker Francisco Sagasti government, an uneasy truce has held in Congress. While political brinkmanship has continued, confrontation has eased. We will first discuss the positive developments, a...

New Russian aircraft engine has its maiden flight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

On December 15 an MC-21 passenger plane flew for the first time with a Russian made engine. Rostec has been keen to promote domestically made aircraft engines. The engine used was a PD-14. An MC-21 is a plane made by Irkut which is owned by Rostec. The plane can also use a US made engine: PW 1400...

Budget 2021 approved with 5.5% of GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, parliament voted in spending plan 2021 with 5.5% of GDP central budget deficit.The final document has not been released year but it is expected to be close to the one we analyzed recently. The authorities claim the spending plan was approved by the IMF but we did not see any...

U-turn in demand for the hryvnia-denominated state bonds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, all of us were shocked to see the huge demand for hryvnia-denominated state bonds that MinFin enjoyed. Just for one day the authorities attracted UAH 42.1 billion (nearly $1.5 billion), $266.1 million and EUR56.7 million. To compare, for 11M2020 MinFin managed to raise to co...

November’s CPI in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Inflation in November declined by 0.2% m/m and declined by 0.6% y/y (from -0.8% y/y in October). This was in line with market expectations (and mine). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) moved higher to -0.2% y/y from -0.4% last month, but remains in negative territory. We...

Azerbaijan claims 4 troops killed on border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

On December 13 Baku said that 4 of its soldiers were killed by Armenians. Armenia has not confirmed this. Baku has not provided any corroborating information such as the location of the deaths. Baku and Yerevan have exchanged accusations of breaking the ceasefire. The Armenians said that the Azer...

Q3'20: Worse than expected
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Third quarter data confirm our gloomy forecast for 2020: 23.6% drop in Q3 and 20.4% up to September.Today, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) presented the results for Q3. They were pessimistic as expected, and more. Real GDP fell by 23.6% compared with Q3 2019, which itself w...

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