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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political climate deteriorates and recession worsens despite the agreement with foreign bondholders
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2020

The successful restructuring of the government debt has reduced the risk of a disorderly default during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. But in all other respects, the political climate and economic prospects have deteriorated since our May 18th forecast. By mid-May it seemed that the governme...

Economics: Pemex results deliver more bad news
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2020

The current government continues to channel just enough relief to keep Pemex on life support, but never enough to get it squarely back on its feet. Neither has it adopted a strategy that could allow a diverse sector to both flourish and meet the country’s energy needs. The gravity of the compa...

Politics: State of security in the wake of El Marro
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Until recent years, the state of Guanajuato didn’t feature in discussions of organized crime. But all that has changed since a petty drug dealer, car thief and extortionist in the tiny town of Santa Rosa de Lima rode the burgeoning huachicol racket of stealing and distributing gasoline from Pemex...

Brazilian Politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Leaders in the House and Senate will test a voting system for presidential vetoes. Vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and sanitation will not be analyzed. The Joint Tax Reform Committee will meet again. The House may vote urgency requests for the bills on the FX market and the new bankruptcy law...

The Pulse of Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

With some data on the first quarter now known, such as industrial output, along with some information on the carry over to the third quarter and the year as a whole, it is clear that the contraction of GDP this year will be less than the 7.5% projected previously. If we assume the possibility tha...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by August 25th (the deadline for the 2020 budget approval), wil...

President of Belarus claims election victory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

On August 9 President Lukashenka announced that he had won re-election with 80%. Three other candidates stood against him. Luakshenka took the precaution banning well known opponents and arresting thousands of demonstrators. The opposition candidates said the result was fraudulent. Some have call...

​Lira volatility: what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

As we start what is likely to be another reasonably turbulent week, in a series of probably many more to come, we provide a quick update on our thoughts, as of Sunday evening, Turkish time.

Highest ever fiscal deficit measured in January-July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

The central government's cash deficit reached HUF 328bn in July, making the first seven months' cumulative deficit as high as HUF 2165bn or 8.1% of GDP. The local press was hasting to point out that this was the highest ever January-July deficit recorded in this category, and it is true. It is al...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israeli Macro Wrap Up 10.8.20: Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by Augu...

US seeks to sequester Ukrainian oligarch's property
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2020

On August 7 the Justice Department issued a civil forfeiture complaint against realty belonging to Ihor Kolomoisky. The aim is to confiscate his real estate without compensation. Kolomoisky owns property in Texas and Kentucky through a company of his. The civil complaint claims that Kolomoisky an...

Belarus loading fuel into controversial nuclear power plant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2020

On August 7 fuel was put into the reactor at Astravets nuclear power station. The power plant was built by Rosatom and paid for by a USD 10 billion loan from Russia earlier in 2020. The first electricity is supposed to flow later in 2020. There is a second reactor which is not yet finished. The n...

Ballooning fiscal confusion and too little economic support
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Aug 2020

For the first time since 2012, Colombia is living without a fiscal rule. Prior to the crisis, this year's national central government deficit was expected to fall from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to 2.3% of GDP in 2020, based on 16.7% of GDP 2020 revenues and 19% of GDP of expenses. Under the new COVI...

Bolsonaro seeks to minimize the negative impact of deaths from Covid-19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2020

With the country approaching 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus, President Jair Bolsonaro is seeking to minimize the damage of the pandemic to his image. Last Thursday, in his weekly Facebook live stream, through which he usually communicates with followers, Bolsonaro declared that he has a clea...

​GULF WEEKLY: PMIs expand, Beirut port explosion, Jabri alleges Saudi assassination plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * PMIs expanded in Saudi and UAE and showed a very strong rebound in Qatar. * Oil strengthened, despite the OPEC+ taper, as Iraq recommitted to compensatory cuts. * A forme...

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