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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

2020–2022 Outlook: Recovery possible under new government
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 07 Aug 2020

Avid readers of our research will find this summary to be similar to that of last quarter. This is no accident—our view has changed little over the past few months. Again this quarter, our outlook through 2022 begins with a single scenario for 2020, then branches off into two scenarios for 2021...

China’s inventory problem
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2020

China’s infrastructure-driven stimulus may be running into problems due to industry overbuild. Much of the demand is production led, fed by loans to the state sector, which controls much of the production of key materials such as steel. The data on inventory suggests China could face demand probl...

Belarus opposition rally despite ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2020

On August 6 several thousand people congressed in Minsk in support of Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya who is running for president. The rally had been planned by her but then the government suddenly withdrew permission. Gathering without permission is a crime in Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya canceled the rall...

Russian business income lowest since 1990s
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2020

On August 3 data was published showing that revenue for businesses during Q2 2020 was its lowest for over 20 years. SMEs have been particularly hard hit. The Russian Statistics Agency said that 3.5% of household income derived from entrepreneurs in Q2. By entrepreneurs it meant SMEs and small ren...

Popularity and unemployment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2020

The newest PoderData poll shows that the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro is recovering. The poll was carried out from August 3-5 and points out that his negative ratings (bad/very bad) are on a strong downward trend, although they remain high (41%). Despite these positive aspects, the issu...

Some initial thoughts on today's market /lira volatility
TURKEY · Report · 06 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

We write this Market Brief at around 9 p.m. Istanbul time, at which time USD/TL was fluctuating around 7.25, very close to its all-time highs. Also, Central Bank Governor Mr. Uysal had called a meeting with executives of commercial banks to discuss the latest market developments, to which the BRS...

June industrial output is unsurprising and still ugly, but substantially improving at least
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

Of the various pieces of June industry data reported by the Statistical Office this morning, the relevant ones are: +17.1% mom, -12.6% yoy, implying -25.7% yoy for the whole of Q2, all on seasonally adjusted basis. Once again, there is no easy way to translate this into a GDP growth component for...

GDP shrinks 16.5% in 2Q
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

The strict lockdown imposed in 2Q to curb the spread of covid-19 resulted in the steepest drop in GDP for one quarter since the time series started in the early 80s. The 16.5% GDP contraction reflects a 20% shock to domestic demand, particularly household spending and investments which fell 15.5%...

​Turkey’s corona scandal could shake up Erdogan administration
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

I’ve long suspected (and expressed the such in my humble essays), that Erdogan administration is tampering with COVID-19 patient data to attract tourists and increase out-of-home consumption.Now, there is proof, which is 99% watertight, which allows me to discuss the true extent of the outbreak a...

Fiscal deficit reaches 7.2% GDP LTM
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

July’s fiscal deficit reached 12bn ILS compared to a deficit of 2bn in July 19. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months reached 7.2% of GDP compared with 6.4% last month. Expenditures (excluding additional outlays for the Covid crisis) actually declined in January-July by 0.4% y/y, as the result...

The debate on the emergency aid extension
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2020

While leaving the Alvorada Palace on August 5, President Jair Bolsonaro stated, “It is not possible to continue the aid for a long time,” when referring to the extension of the R$ 600 paid by the government to informal workers. Bolsonaro noted that the aid costs the federal government R$ 50 billi...

Untouchables, The End
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Aug 2020

On August 4, five Supreme Court (SC) Justices unanimously found enough merits to impose house arrest on former president and current senator Alvaro Uribe. Uribe and his lawyers may have been involved (allegedly) in witness tampering, in a case against him for (allegedly) supporting the creation o...

June retail sales data is a proof of gradual economic recovery
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2020

Retail sales grew by 3.7% mom in June on seasonally adjusted basis, implying a -0.5% yoy number. The latter was much better, of course, than the -3.5% yoy figure seen in May and the -9.5% low point of the year-on-year curve back in April. This kind of recovery seems to have followed the general E...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2020

For more than two months, Brazil has been recording more than a thousand Covid-19 deaths daily, with a total so far of 93 thousand deaths and 2.7 million infected people, despite the low levels of testing. Nevertheless, the country continues without a health minister or a national plan to face th...

Costa Rica: CB Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Aug 2020

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2020-2021 on July 30th. After updating the pandemic evolution, here and abroad, the Bank concludes that the provisional April assumptions on the public health and economic activity consequences don’t ho...

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