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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 18
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Inflation remains elevated but likely to moderate in 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2024
1. Core inflation pushed higher in October due to higher airfares, a volatile item. 2. We view the fiscal package for 2025 as restrictive and likely to dampen household demand. 3. We expect inflation to moderate in 2025, supportive of monetary easing.
Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024
Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...
Inflation pressures likely to subside in 2025, supporting rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Nov 2024
Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely, but may have to wait for Trump. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties. The imminent threat from a ballistic ...
Back in the twilight zone of Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2024 · 1 response
Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone once again, where the unthinkable quickly becomes the norm. The politics essays start with reports of President Erdogan planning to send the military to Syria once again, to deal the final blow to the reigning Kurdish military-political entity PYD/YPG. W...
Country in a wait-and-see stance, after withdrawal of fiscal reform bill
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 15 Nov 2024
After the government unexpectedly decided to withdraw the tax reform bill from Congress due to public opposition, Dominican society remains in a holding pattern, awaiting the government’s next steps to ease constraints on public finances. At the time of the withdrawal, the government announced th...
The reform of the pension system goes to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · Report · 15 Nov 2024 · 1 response
The reform of the CSS legislation, in particular the pension system, is the most recent initiative of the Mulino administration, after the Fiscal Responsibility Law enacted at the beginning of the month (which suffered minor changes in the legislative) and the Budget Law, which was changed substa...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Kuwait replace sovereign wealth chiefs, Neom replaces CEO, Dubai GDP steady in Q2, Qatar pauses Gaza mediation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high. * The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks. * Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued...
Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024
Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates In October, the CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (according to consensus, we were leaning towards 0.6%), and remained stable at 3.5% y/y. Core inflation (The CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% last month, mostly due to ...
Improved electricity supply sparks optimism for South Africa's economic outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2024
• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was only 0.4% higher in H1-2024 than it was during the corresponding period in 2023. The country’s logistical issues remain a major hindrance to economic activity, while there was heightened uncertainty due to the May 29th general elec...
Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...
Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024
What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...
Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024
How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...
Economic growth remains strong enough in October but is uneven among sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024
As the tenge slowly climbs toward the USD/KZT 500 milestone mark amid some unwillingness of the regulators to see it weakening, as the NBK occasionally reiterates its intentions to “support” the currency, the Kazakh economy keeps growing relatively fast. This “support” largely stems from the need...
One dead after bombing in front of the STF, the government is concerned about the approval of Tax Reform regulation by the end of the year, and the bill on parliamentary fund transfers should be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2024
Regarding the explosions that occurred yesterday (November 13) in Brasília (DF), at the Praça dos Três Poderes, leaving one man dead, it is worth noting that, instead of invoking fear, it rekindles a sense of unity among the branches of government and authorities in defense of democracy, reminisc...