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Events
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The Lower House begins analysis of the government’s fiscal package, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform bill may submit a draft of his report, and the Senate begins analysis of the appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024
The fiscal package measures announced by the government last week begin to be discussed in the Lower House this week. Last Friday, November 29, the government leader in the House, José Guimarães (PT-CE), presented a complementary bill (PLP No. 210/24) and an ordinary bill (PL No. 4,614/24) for th...
Economics: Indicators point to further slowdown, as anticipated
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024
Indicators were released during November that point to a more pronounced slowdown at the end of this year. Gross fixed capital formation fell an annual 0.9% in August, the first decline since February 2021, with construction experiencing a notable decrease. Industrial production remained weak in ...
De-escalation is deflationary
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2024
1. The ceasefire in the North will help moderate inflationary pressure. 2. This will support monetary easing commencing in Q2 2025. 3. Recent economic indicators point to deceleration due to the escalation in the North. 4. The MPC expressed satisfaction with the fiscal framework for 2025.
The Hardest Thing
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Dec 2024
The hardest thing to forecast today is in what kind of climate Maduro’s apparently inevitable inauguration takes place on January 10. The state security apparatus is on high alert, and tensions are rising, as Nicolás Maduro's swearing-in ceremony approaches. Donald Trump’s and Marco Rub...
Moody's changed the outlook of its Baa2 sovereign debt rating to Negative from Stable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2024
This happened on Friday, November 29, at Moody's last review date set for this year: This was no surprise at all. Hungary has had a split rating from the top three agencies for quite a while, and against the worse ratings granted by Fitch Ratings and mainly S&P, Moody's appeared to be quite gener...
Slowing inflationary pressures likely to support monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Dec 2024
Geopolitics: Finally, some good news. The ceasefire with Hezbollah seems to be holding, despite some Israeli attacks due to Hezbollah violations. It is still difficult to assess the likelihood of calm being maintained, but we think so, as the war in Syria will take precedence for Hezbollah and Ir...
Signs, bridging fissures
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2024 · 1 response
The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts. * Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d. * The Saudi budget sees tax revenue...
Essential CIS Politics: December 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024
- Trump’s possible future effects on the CIS examined - Russia updates nuclear doctrine in response to Western weapons targeting its territory - Government rides out protests in Georgia - COP 29 in Azerbaijan provokes new diplomatic row with France
Kazakhstan macro: Budget 2025 looks safer now with a weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Nov 2024
A couple of days ago, Majilis (the lower chamber of the Kazakh parliament) reportedly approved the updated version of the republican 2025 budget along with the indicative budgets for several following years. Legislators also amended the revenues and expenditures of the 2024 Kazakh republican budg...
The measures in the fiscal package may be sent to Congress today, Congress members are still waiting for the STF to address the parliamentary fund transfers issue, and Lula may make appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024
The measures included in the fiscal package announced by the government on Wednesday could reach the National Congress today. According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the package involves a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and a complementary bill. A critical matter that lawm...
In technical recession, light
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2024
In the third quarter, Turkish GDP rose by 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, but contracted slightly by 0.2% (sequentially) over the previous quarter in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms. With the downward revision of the second quarter sequential growth rate to -0.2%, q/...
Growth remained strong
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024
The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result in Q3 2024, albeit lower than the previous quarter, at 4.95%. This was slightly below the 5.05% annual growth in Q2 2024. The 3Q rate of growth led growth for first three quarters of 2024 to 5.03%. Compared to the previous quarter, t...
Winston Churchill’s Wisdom
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024
The long-postponed "fiscal adjustment package" has finally come to light. The reaction was so negative that some suggested another postponement would have been a better option. The first conclusion we draw, as we will explore further, is that the magnitude of the promised adjustment falls shor...
Nov CCA Highlights: Armenia lowers CPI target, Azerbaijan grows strongly in Oct, Georgia sells record-high FX to prop up lari, Uzbekistan delays meeting CPI target
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024
We discuss briefly the key macro and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia this Nov: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.2% YoY in 3Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator decelerates to 4.2% YoY in Oct Armenia: CPI steady in Oct at 0.6% YoY Armenia: CB to lower inflation target to 3% in 20...