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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

High unemployment: don’t blame the Venezuelans
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Jul 2019

What started as a minor concern likely to correct itself has now become one of the greatest sources of concern, for the government and analysts alike. But the government seems to be ignoring the real problems plaguing the labor market, and therefore the solutions it will propose probably won’t be...

President Medina gave up on re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019 · 1 response

In a speech to the Nation, President Danilo Medina announced that he will not seek re-election. Therefore, there won't be any attempt to amend the Constitution. In our reading, although he did not recognize it, the President surrendered to the circumstances and accepted that he had no chance of a...

The roads are closing to re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

This is a crucial week in DR politics and the prospects for re-election are looking very bleak. It seems increasingly difficult to achieve it, and Medina is left with few alternatives. These are the facts: 1. The Medina group has not managed, so far, to get the votes it needs to pass a constituti...

The ball is in the Senate’s court and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2019

The government announces economic stimulus measures. On Tuesday, it launches a program for the new market for natural gas. The next day, it announces permission for FGTS and PIS/PASEP withdrawals. The publication of a decree that allows for the returning of concessions that are financially in tro...

Economics: Investor and consumer debt aversions
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2019

Over the past year Mexican consumers and investors have grown increasingly cautious when it comes to taking on new debt as they brace for the potential ramifications of risks at home and abroad. The amount of financing entering the Mexican economy appeared to have been essentially flat during the...

Politics: What Baja’s "Ley Bonilla" may portend
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2019

A particularly bizarre series of recent events in the state of Baja California raises many questions about the dynamics of party politics at this early stage of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation, and the tensions building within his own Morena party. Like many other st...

What’s on the government’s agenda after the Pension Reform?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jul 2019

During the first half of the year, all the government’s legislative efforts were focused on the pension reform. The 379 favorable votes in the first floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies did not end the process, but it does mean that a gigantic step has been taken toward final approval. So, what ...

State of the Nation Address 2019
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

The business community should find President Rodrigo Duterte’s fourth State of the National Address (SONA) to its liking. First off, there was no mention of federalism. Second, he promised to push harder with the reform programs started under his administration, stressing especially ease of doing...

Sharp decline in inflation will prevent tightening this year
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jul 2019

Highlights: June's CPI (-0.6% m/m, 0.8% y/y) came in way below expectations. * Both fresh produce and rental prices surprised on the downside. * Nevertheless, core inflation remained stable at 1.1% y/y. We expect inflation to reach 1.0% in 2019 and 1.1% NTM. * This foreca...

Mono-party ruling: Servant of the People takes an absolute majority in the parliament
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

Election committee has processed 2/3 of votes and we already can see that presidential party Servant of the People has won an absolute majority at the parliament. They have at least 249 seats while only 226 needed to appoint the Cabinet. Attracting independent MPs gives Zelenskiy constitutional m...

SAUDI: IMF forecasts are optimistic - we expect slower growth and larger deficits
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

The IMF just completed its annual Article IV consultation in the Kingdom. We have a broadly similar assessment of recent economic performance, but the IMF 2019 forecasts for both non-oil real GDP growth and the fiscal deficit are a little optimistic. In the longer term, we also see slower growth ...

Exit polls: presidential party wins the parliament
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2019

Presidential party Servant of the People got 43.9% of support according to exit-polls which is near 126 MP seats out of 225 seats on the party lists. On FPTPs we have reports from the fields that candidates from presidential party have an overwhelming majority. Some journalists estimated that Ser...

The week of the “400s”
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jul 2019

Turkey is formally expelled from the F-35 fighter jet program, but insists on deploying S-400s, largely because Trump demurs at substantive sanctions. This week the visit of a high-level US delegation to Ankara and Trump’s meeting with the US Senators could reshape the crisis. Politics section...

Russia cosying up with Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2019

Iran and Russia share Tiyas Air Base in Syria. They are comrades in arms: fighting for Assad's government and fighting against ISIS. Russian aircraft have airlifted Iranian equipment to Syria.In June 2019 President Rouhani met Putin in Kyrgyzstan. This summit was the Shanghai Co-operation Organiz...

President Ramaphosa's Challenges Getting Close and Personal
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

Ever since assuming the high office of the country, President Ramaphosa has not been short of challenges. Aside from the enormous task of turning the economy around and restoring the integrity and operational efficacy of the machinery of the state which had been left in a poor financial and admin...

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