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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A batch of policy initiatives to combat the current financial stress
INDIA · Report · 19 Jul 2019

A package of policy initiatives aimed at addressing the current financial stress came out from the RBI, SEBI and the Ministry of Finance from June 27 to July 6. We look at the stock price response of large private financial firms. The impact is somewhat negative. There may be an element of procyc...

Russian National Wealth Fund might be used for credit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

The Russian Parliament has approved a bill that permits the use of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to give credit for export. This is unprecedented but is probably consistent with the remit of the NWF. The NWF has often lent money to Russian companies if the NWF's holdings are over 7% of GDP. The ...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2019

* Russian economic growth remains unimpressive but a recession seems unlikely. * Widespread protests in Russia have been easily contained, and the authorities have been uncharacteristically lenient. * The new Kazakh president’s first full term has gotten off to a difficult start, with many...

Ukrainian conflict de-escalating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

On July 18 the Ukrainian Government agreed to exchange prisoners with the rebels. Ukraine is letting out 208 people in return for only 69 who will be released by the rebels. It seems the rebels are doing better out of this. The negotiations were brokered by the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk. ...

​QATAR: Moody's credit opinion hints at an upgrade path
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2019

Underlying trends in Moody’s latest credit opinion point towards a potential upgrade path, despite some negative revisions to its economic forecasts. This is because Qatar's “indicative” rating is now at its highest in at least three years, and we expect it will improve further, creating room for...

Revisions are due everywhere, from GDP to fiscal and monetary policy
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jul 2019

Compared to our previous medium-term forecast, released in April, there are no fewer than five areas where material revisions seem to be justified. First, we are raising our forecast for this year’s GDP, despite maintaining the view that growth should indeed decelerate in H2 and next year. Second...

South Africa’s interest rate cut finally arrives
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jul 2019

On Thursday (18 July 2019), the nation waited with bated breath on the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Governor of the Reserve Bank (SARB), Mr Lesetja Khanyago. There was a general expectation for the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after keeping them uncha...

Russia considering constitutional amendments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2019

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament, has proposed amending the constitution to transfer some president prerogatives to the Parliament. Volodin's idea has not yet taken the form of draft legislation. Volodin said that his proposal will enable the state to enact social justice...

One more rate cut: down to 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jul 2019

As expected, the NBU Board approved one more policy rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 17.0%. The hryvnia's strengthening as well as inflation's easing are behind the decision. The political cycle also appeared to be much smoother than any predicted. The next meeting of the NBU Board will be on Septembe...

Lucky Zelenskiy inherits a boom
UKRAINE · Forecast · 17 Jul 2019

Not only was new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy lucky to enjoy the support of 73% of voters, but he’s also fortunate to have inherited from his predecessor a freshly recharged economy. Ukraine’s GDP is on a sustainable growth path. Private consumption grew 10.7% y/y in Q1, and promises to rise ...

US Congress shifts against Saudi and UAE, hinting at problems post-Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Later today, the US House of Representatives will pass resolutions blocking emergency arms sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE, which the Administration had fast-tracked as part of its show of force against Iran. President Trump will veto the resolutions, but they are still indicative of hardening opin...

Rail renovation behind schedule
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019

On July 16 the vice minister of Russian Railroads Maksim Akimov told a private meeting that stage one of upgrading the Trans-Siberian Railroad will not be completed on time. It was supposed to be finished by 2020. Construction is particularly problematic around Lake Baikal and the Amur River. Aki...

SAUDI: Government spending supports non-oil economy and requires further debt issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2019

The sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was due to voluntary oil production cuts and is not an immediate cause for concern. More positively, government spending in 2018 fed through into higher private non-oil sector growth in Q1 2019. Leading economic data indicates continued momentum in the non-o...

Russia is de-centralizing national projects
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019

On July 15 Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced that he wished to transfer decision making on the 12 national projects to independent committees. Until now decision about the national projects had been made by the Presidium of the Council on Strategic Development and National Projects. This o...

Primer on Pemex Business Plan: general overview is not promising
MEXICO · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019

This morning the head of Pemex (Octavio Romero), made some general remarks about Pemex Business Plan, that was yesterday unanimously approved by Pemex Board (in absence, but with representation of new Finance Minister A. Herrera). We’ll analyze the full document as soon as it is available, howeve...

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