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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 18
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Some good-looking fiscal data and the negative forint impact of the ugly Middle East situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024
Starting with the bad news, the forint has just been kicked out of its cosy EURHUF 390-395 range it held for quite a while, to quite unnervingly close to the 400 line, which the MNB obviously will not want to see being crossed, for the potential, and even likely, negative impact on domestic infla...
China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024
The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...
Lula attends the Mexican President’s inauguration, the Minister of Finance holds a meeting to discuss advertising for betting platforms, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee discusses Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2024
President Lula continues his agenda in Mexico. Today, he will attend the inauguration of President Claudia Sheinbaum. Afterward, he will return to Brazil. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, will hold a meeting this afternoon to discuss advertising for betting platforms in the country. Betw...
The new ways of services exports
INDIA · Report · 01 Oct 2024
The most important success of the Indian economy lies in IT and in a wide array of services exports enabled by IT. This field began with global firms contracting out to specialized IT services firms that had specialized abilities in operating in India. There is now an increasing shift to "Global ...
The Central Bank lowers the monetary policy rate again
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Oct 2024
The monetary policy rate in October 2024 will be 25 basis points lower than in the previous month. Yesterday, the Central Bank decided to set the monetary policy rate at 6.50% per year. Additionally, the liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) is being lowered from 7.25% to 7.00% per year...
SAUDI ARABIA: Deficit projections widen in pre-budget statement
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2024 · 2 responses
The Ministry of Finance has revised up its projection for expenditure this year, driven by social benefits and goods & services, and in turn sees the deficit widening to -2.9% of GDP. It also sees wider deficits in subsequent years, averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2025-27.
New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024
Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...
Essential CIS Politics: October 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2024
* Putin announces change in Russian nuclear doctrine. * Russia’s relationship with Iran gets complicated. * Russian troops entered Vuhledar as Ukraine seeks aid in the US. * Armenia claims it thwarted a coup attempt. * Azerbaijan holds elections—including in Nagorno-K...
The upcoming municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024
This is the final week of the municipal election campaign before the first round, which will take place next Sunday. President Lula will attend the inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum as the president of Mexico. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee continues its public hearings on Tax Refo...
Fiscal Easing Complicates the Central Bank’s Work
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024
The economy is growing faster than its potential, as confirmed by labor market data. In August, the unemployment rate, adjusted for seasonal effects, reached the lowest level in the series. However, the preliminary inflation data for September showed favorable signs, which we believe are temporar...
Hopes deferred
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2024
El Salvador’s short-term economic outlook looks less hopeful we projected in our April 2024 report, after analyzing H1 trends. Deviation from key assumptions we made in the April forecasting exercise has turned perspectives less favorable. The eventual better performance that we expected either c...
Markets shrug at the Lebanon conflict, but are underestimating the risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2024
Markets have shrugged off the risks from the conflict in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader and a pending ground invasion. Hezbollah may not be as weakened as thought and, although Iran has shown restraint until now, this may be a step too far. Lots of human suffering is ahead. ...
More opposition to diversion of P89.9 billion to PhilHealth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2024
A couple of days ago, former high-ranking officials including former cabinet secretaries joined the broadening section of Philippine society by issuing a statement opposing the diversion of P89.9 billion of the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) funds to the National Treasury to...
Politics: New Morena leadership, with Sheinbaum increasingly fenced in by AMLO and a highly disparate party
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024
A week ago, 3,000 delegates to a Morena party congress were called upon to raise their hands to endorse a new national executive committee, whose composition the national leadership only read out immediately before the seemingly unanimous vote. The new leadership is heavily stacked with AMLO loya...
This is the last week for municipal campaigns, the Senate will hold Galípolo’s confirmation hearings on October 8, and the priority in the House is the second Tax Reform regulation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2024
This is the last week of the municipal election campaign period before the first round, which will take place next Sunday. The campaign period ends on Thursday (October 3). On October 8, according to Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the Senate floor will analyze Gabriel Galípolo's appoi...