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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024
Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October Oct 6 President: A con...
The Deputy Governor sounds more hawkish than the Governor
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues to push on with its ground operation into Lebanon, while missiles into Israel’s North (including the Haifa area) continue at a high intensity. Israel continues to attack parts or Northern Gaza as well. The Israeli retaliation against Iran appears imminent, with the m...
Think global, act local
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2024
After pondering at length developments in the Middle East, Ukraine war and the US presidential elections, the political analyst has decided to dedicate a major portion of his contribution to this monthly report to potential exogenous shocks, which would completely wreck Mehmet Simsek’s Economic S...
The order of factors does affect the product: a defeat for the Executive in the Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024 · 1 response
This week, the Executive Branch presented its proposal for the 2025 national budget to the Legislative Branch, which was challenged on Thursday by the Budget Commission for three reasons: (1) it was not submitted on time, as the Constitution (Article 184) requires the proposal to be sent within t...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge correction looks healthy and will stabilize tax flow in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2024
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently reported that tax revenues of the National Fund amounted to KZT2.980 trln in 9M24, i.e., about 50% of the annual plan (KZT5.957 trln). In 8M24, the government accumulated KZT2.863 trln (48.1% of the plan). As one can see, revenue flow remained sluggish in...
Electoral campaigns for the municipal run-offs resume on TV and radio, the STF will adjudicate two cases regarding taxes, and next week Senator Braga is expected to submit a timeline for the regulation of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2024
Today, electoral campaigns on TV and radio will resume in the 52 municipalities where a run-off will take place. The campaigns will run until October 25, and the run-off is scheduled for October 27. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin a virtual plenary session to determine whether t...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How did Armenia and Georgia manage to grow their economies by a fifth in 2022-2023?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Oct 2024
We have on a number of occasions underlined the strong growth performance that Armenia and Georgia have enjoyed over the last couple of years. This has helped boost their standing in the GDP-per-capita ranking in the CIS space. Both countries have delivered an impressive 20% real GDP growth over ...
CIS heads of state meeting in Moscow on Putin’s birthday
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024
On October 7, the leaders of the CIS countries gathered in Novo-Ogaryovo, the suburban residence of the Russian President in Moscow Oblast to meet and celebrate Vladimir Putin’s 72nd birthday. The CIS, or Commonwealth of Independent States is a regional intergovernmental organization led by Russi...
The anti-STF agenda made progress in the House, the Ministry of Finance is considering creating a minimum tax for millionaires, and there will be a press conference on the regulation of digital platforms today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The anti-Supreme Federal Court agenda has made progress in the Lower House. The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved the admissibility of Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) 28/24, which allows Congress to suspend decisions made by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). In other news, ...
The coup d'état that wasn’t
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
On October 8th, 2024, The National Electoral Council (NEC), the body investigating possible financing infringements by the Petro presidential campaign, filed charges against president Petro, the campaign manager Ricardo Roa (current CEO of Ecopetrol), and other members of the campaign staff. That...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
The ruble weakened against the dollar in the past couple of weeks, and since Sep 25, it has lost about 3.5% of its value. On the one hand, the settlement for imports has more or less normalized in September, which fuelled demand for FX. On the other hand, the dollar strengthened globally, and som...
September inflation down as expected, MNB cools early rate cut expectations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
In September, headline CPI-inflation has been reported as -0.1% mom, 3% yoy, core inflation as 0% mom, 4.8% yoy this morning. The yoy headline rate came from 3.4%, whereas core inflation rose from 4.6%, both actual data from August. As a result, the chart with the headline rate, the core rate and...
Rates on hold for now, but possible tightening in the coming year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
Rates on hold despite an increase in the inflation environment There were no real surprises in the interest rate decision. The Bank of Israel noted that there was an acceleration in inflation broadly, including tradable components (mainly goods) and non-tradable components (services), mainly due ...
A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...