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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deputy Forte announced that the zero-deficit fiscal target will be maintained, Thursday is the deadline for Lula to sanction or veto the payroll tax exemption bill, and the STF may adjudicate the ICMS tax rate case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023

The rapporteur of the bill that deals with the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), announced yesterday, after a meeting with the government, that the target for next year will be a zero deficit, as defended by the economic team. This is a victory for the Minister o...

Webinar replay - Geoeconomic reshuffling in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Nov 2023

How has the 3rd Karabakh war has reshuffled the deck of winners and losers in the region? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar discussing how sustainable the new regional relationships are in the short-to-medium term as individual economies adapt to the new geoeconomic real...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April - amended
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Nov 2023

We are re-sending this report, amended with small changes to Tables 2-9 in the Statistical Annex that brought our inflation forecast to 204% from our previous 202%. In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. ...

China’s external constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...

GDP growth beats expectations in 3Q23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that Russia’s GDP grew by 5.5% y-o-y in 3Q23, which was well above expectations. Even though it was a flash estimate and no other details have been provided, this figure indicates that economic growth accelerated in 3Q23. In 2Q23, GDP was up by 4.9% y-o-y. Note that the deepest c...

Slide Presentation - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Get insight into Brazil's macro outlook for 2024, including how effective Brazil's fiscal framework will be and what impact the country's monetary policy will have on interest rates by the end of the easing cycle—all with the slide presentation from our "Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook" webinar.

The STF will adjudicate appeals regarding the breach of sentences in tax matters, Lula should appoint a new Prosecutor General in the coming days, and the Alesp should hold a public hearing on the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Today, November 16, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will adjudicate appeals from companies regarding the breach of sentences in tax matters. In February, the Court decided that final judicial decisions in favor of taxpayers could be annulled if the Court established a different understanding of t...

New UK Foreign Secretary visits Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2023

On November 16 Lord David Cameron met Zelensky in Kyiv. It is his first trip abroad since being appointed. Cameron is the former British Prime Minister. Lord Cameron was appointed Foreign Secretary on November 13. He reiterated that the United Kingdom shall support Ukraine in every way until the ...

Fiscal Rule under fire
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

Early on after taking office, President Petro said, “At some point, Colombia will have to choose between Peace and the Fiscal Rule”. Finance Minister Ocampo reacted quickly back then and calmed the waters, saying fiscal policy would be carried out unwaveringly within the limits of the Fiscal Rule...

Bulgarian elections narrowly drive wedge with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Among various EU members, Bulgaria has a close cultural and historical affinity with Russia, but the two countries’ politics have diverged over the post-Soviet period. In the context of the Ukraine war, as well as redrawn energy pipelines, we examine how events in internal politics in Bulgaria lo...

Inflation in October points to deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

Inflation in October points to deceleration Inflation in October (0.5% m/m, 3.7% y/y following 3.8% in September) came in as expected. The underlying trends point to deceleration with housing rental prices (OER) decelerating to 4.9% y/y from 5.5%, while the main housing item moderated to 4.8% y/y...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

Nov 2 President: Kazakhstan and Hungary have the potential to increase the annual trade turnover to $1 bln (vs $172.2 mln in FY22) Nov 3 Energy Ministry: In 2024, oil extraction in Kazakhstan may exceed 90 mln tons Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan's gas exports to China will amount to 11 bcm in the ye...

Russia's attack on a Chinese bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Nov 2023

The cyberattack by Russian agents or their proxies on a Chinese bank in the U.S. is more serious than it may appear on the surface. The Russian group LockBit, based in Netherlands but with Russian employees, conducted a ransomware attack on the Chinese bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China...

Slide Presentation - Geoeconomic reshuffling in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2023

Get insight into how the 3rd Karabakh war has reshuffled the deck of winners and losers in the region and the sustainability of these relationships in the short-to- medium term as individual economies adapt to the new geoeconomic realities—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Cauca...

Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow steadily
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

According to a preliminary estimate of the Bureau of National Statistics, in 9M23, the country’s GDP expanded by 4.7% y-o-y—not a bad result despite some deceleration of growth compared to 1H23 (5.0% y-o-y). There are still powerful 2022 base effects, which could lift GDP growth in 4Q24 and the 2...

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