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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Moody’s downgrades as Pemex 2023 results show further deterioration of its performance and balance sheet
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Pemex’s 2023 results showed slight upticks in some operating numbers but nothing that could minimize the extent to which its financial indicators continued to fuel doubts as to the company's medium-term viability. This point was underscored by just the latest in a long stream of ratings and outlo...

Patience and trust, with sticks and carrots
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Friday night´s “Address to the Nation”, at the opening session of the Congress, was quite insightful for an event that is often used by presidents merely to praise their own mandates. Milei presented a broad-based overview of his immediate and medium-term political goals. All of these are, in gen...

Poor print, a very tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 4.5% in February, with the 12-month CPI inflation rising visibly to 67.1%, y/y, from 64.9% in January. Producer price inflation was 3.7%, m/m, with the 12-month PPI-rate also rising to 47.3% in February, from 44.2% in the previous month. The slippage...

BSP not too anxious to unhinge monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2024

In a quote that could very well apply to the BSP’s inflation management, BSP Governor Eli Remolona was quoted having declared that “we want to be prepared for the dangers of rosy scenarios” when the central bank’s Financial Stability Report was rolled out to the public three weeks ago, February 1...

Lula will meet with Senate leaders this week to improve their relationship, mayors will hold a demonstration in Brasilia in defense of payroll tax reduction, and the CCJ is expected to discuss the new Electoral Code
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2024

On Tuesday, March 5, President Lula will meet with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and party leaders. The objective of the meeting is to improve the relationship between the Executive Office and the National Congress. On Wednesday, March 6, the National Confederation of Mun...

Monetary caution due to elevated uncertainty
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Mar 2024

1. Rates remained stable last week due to elevated uncertainty, both geo-political and fiscal. 2. Private consumption has rebounded since the initial impact of the war and is currently above pre-war levels. 3. The shekel continued to appreciate in expectation of an imminent cease-fire, se...

When the music's over
CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...

Cha-Cha as an economic risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2024

In our previous report dated February 12, 2024, we raised the brewing issue of a possible break up in the UniTeam of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte. The cracks were beginning to be more apparent first in the International Criminal Court (ICC) involving the Vice-Pres...

March spells survival of the fittest
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2024

The politics author hereby presents his preliminary predictions for local elections. In a nutshell, things are not looking good for President Erdogan at the moment. Ankara may have already slipped out of his grasp, while AKP candidate Kurum’s chances in Istanbul are no more than 50% in his view. ...

Monetary caution due to elevated uncertainty
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2024

The BoI preferred to err on the side of caution: The rate hold decision last week was not a major surprise as expectations were split. We think the major factors contributing to this decision were: the postponement of fiscal approval, shekel volatility following the Moody’s downgrade, and the pos...

Bulgaria ends Russian oil imports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2024

On March 1 Bulgaria made the announcement that it has finally brought itself fully into line with EU sanctions on Russia. The sanctions on Russian oil adopted in 2022 granted exemptions to Hungary and Bulgaria because they were heavily reliant on Russian oil. Bulgaria's exemption was due to be ph...

Netherlands signs security guarantee with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2024

On March 1 the Dutch Prime Minister signed the agreement in Kharkiv, Ukraine. It is surprising that Mark Rutte traveled to the city, which is so close to the front line. The Netherlands pledged EUR 2 billion in military aid and more assistance until 2034. The Dutch reaffirmed that they want Ukrai...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF and Sharjah issue debt, UAE invests $35bn in Egypt, Qatar expands LNG, UAE delisted by FATF
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Mar 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ sources indicated that the current cuts could next week be extended into Q2. * A new Gaza ceasefire proposal is under review as the death toll crosses 30k, including 112 in a single incident this week. * Abu Dhabi i...

Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, whi...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

* Russia took Avdiivka: Russia’s greatest victory for almost a year. * Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny died suddenly in jail. * President of Azerbaijan re-elected in an election that was described by some as unfair. * Ukraine is to receive another EUR 50 billion from the ...

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