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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25
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Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 1
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Hungary databank Jul 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Nov 2023
1. The October Business Sentiment Survey reflects an expected sharp decline in economic activity. 2. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 4% GDP in 2023 and 6% GDP in 2024 as a result of the conflict. 3. We expect a CPI print of 0.5% m/m in October, impacted by seasonality and higher fre...
Russia evacuates its citizens from Gaza
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023
On November 13 an announcement was made that Russian officials from the Emergency Situations Ministry and diplomats are bringing Russian citizens out of Gaza. There are over 600 Russians in Gaza. So far Israel has only allowed 80 Russians out of Gaza. 60 Russians have gone from Gaza to Egypt. Rus...
Western sources say Ukraine blew up Nord Stream Pipeline.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023
On November 11 The Washington Post and a German magazine cited Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources as saying that Ukraine was behind the explosion in 2022. Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the gas pipeline. Russia said that Ukraine did it. The pipeline in the Baltic Sea carried gas...
Economy and politics, too hot for comfort
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2023
Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutio...
Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023
Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, although at a decreasing pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network especially in Gaza city (inc...
Latvia's former interior ministry convicted of spying for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2023
On November 10 the court found that Janis Adamsons has worked for the Russian Federal Security Service and gathered intelligence for decades. He was awarded 8 years in jail. A Russian citizen was his accomplice, and a former KGB officer was given 7 years. Adamsons was interior minister in the mi...
Russian missile hits merchant ship in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023
On November 10 Ukraine claimed that a Russian missile struck the Liberian flagged-cargo ship in Odesa and 1 sailor was killed. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied this. The ship was hit with an anti-radar missile, so the strike might be accidental. Kyiv claimed the ship was due to take iron o...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q3 revenue better than reported, Saudi FDI revised up, Dubai budgets strong surpluses, Qatar signs China LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2023 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped below $80 for the first time since July on demand concerns. * The conflict in north Gaza intensified, and Qatar hosted the Mossad and CIA chiefs for hostage mediation. * Saudi Arabia is hosting emergen...
Justice Barroso modified his vote in the FGTS correction case, the Tax Reform proposal still has not been submitted to the House, and there will be a federal holiday on Wednesday next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2023
Yesterday, November 9, during the trial of the case on the FGTS correction index in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Barroso, rapporteur of the case, modified his vote postponing the change in the TR correction for savings to 2025. This was a government request. Also yesterday, the r...
Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023
With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.
Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023
On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...
Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023
How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...
Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023
With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".
Surprise, surprise: CPI-inflation down to a single-digit level already in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023
The October figures for the headline inflation rate were -0.1% mom, 9.9% yoy, the latter falling from 12.2% yoy in September. This surprised analysts, who had a median expectation of 10.3% yoy, our own forecast figure being 10.2% yoy. Crucially, food prices fell by 0.1% mom, a very much non-seaso...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023
The FX market remained relatively calm at the beginning of November. The widened current account surplus, accompanied by some measures of capital controls, caused the ruble to appreciate. It strengthened to R/$92 as of November 8. The new sanctions package, announced in early November, may negati...