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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 22 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 22
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 21
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Gas hopes, harsh realities
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Sep 2020
Ankara is trying to turn around a weak economy and poor local sentiment through divisive politics, confrontational foreign policy and promises of great riches from gas discoveries. Will it work? We don’t see how it possibly could, which means further market volatility is highly likely, making the...
Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Sep 2020
Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 7.9.20 Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption suppo...
Government forced to finance a 9.3% of GDP deficit
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Sep 2020
Just two weeks after taking office, President Luis Abinader faces the urgent task of financing a public deficit that is almost four times higher than it was before the pandemic. Due to the fall in tax revenues, and to greater pressure on spending to address the health crisis and reactivate the...
It’s time to (cautiously) reopen
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Sep 2020
The unprecedented 15.7% contraction in Q2 was hardly a surprise. But there is uncertainty over the distribution of “pain” across sectors and aggregate demand, and the depth of the collapse. Almost all sectors were hard hit. But agriculture, financial and insurance activities, and real estate acti...
Government withdraws request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020
Today, September 4, the government withdrew its request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal it submitted to Congress. If the request for urgent status (submitted on July 21 along with the proposal) were granted, the text would block the agenda next week, preventing the Lower House from ...
No deflation in August, by year-end inflation is likely to exceed 4%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020
Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation was at 0% in August, even though some deflation due to seasonal factors was earlier expected. Even though prices of fruits and vegetables fell, so that food prices in total were down by 0.9% m-o-m, and by 1.0% y-o-y, it was not enough to offset increased pric...
Russia’s political and pandemic update: Russia’s alienation to deepen amid Navalny saga
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020
As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia exceeded 1 mln people, while Russian economic performance has improved in recent months, Russians became a bit more optimistic in August, even though the daily numbers of newly infected people stopped declining in mid-August and fluctuated below...
GULF WEEKLY: Dubai issues, Oman VAT approved, PMIs weaken, Israelis fly to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, and Bahrain started talks with banks about an issuance to take advantage of the sharp fall in yields. * The first Israel-UAE flight t...
US concerned about new Chinese army base in Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020
On September 2 the US Government said that China is seeking to establish a military base. Beijing has a deeply sympathetic relationship with Dushanbe. Chinese companies are increasingly important in the economy. There are 7,000 Russian troops in Tajikistan. Russia regards this former Soviet count...
President of Kazakhstan plans to reorganize the state
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020
On September 1 Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev addressed his people. He announced a major overhaul of state structures. The Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms will be set up. Another as-yet-unnamed agency will be created to manage economic competition.There is growing disenchantment with economic sta...
The NBU leaves prime rate at 6% amid scandal court ruling on Privatbank
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020
Yesterday, on September 3rd the NBU Board again decided to leave prime rate unchanged at 6%. Press-release mentioned reviving demand and energy prices’ increase. Also the NBU assumes continued cooperation with the IMF. Among major risks the NBU mentioned “negative impact of certain court rulings ...
The government details its Administrative Reform proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2020
Today, September 3, the federal government formally submitted to Congress the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) on Administrative Reform. The text proposes a series of changes in the rules of civil service, such as prohibiting the compulsory retirement of civil servants as a form of pu...
Russian Ruble tumbles as Germany says Navalny was poisoned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020
On September 2 German doctors announced that they are certain that Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent called novichok. Whether the accusation is true or not the impact on the RUB has been dramatic. The RUB saw its most abrupt fall in 6 months. The RU...
The employment picture
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020
The Philippine Statistics Authority released this morning its labor force survey for the third quarter. Overall, the numbers paint an improving employment picture in 3Q following the strict lockdown in 2Q. However, the 10% unemployment is at its highest since 2004 and 17% underemployment since 20...
Inflation remained elevated in August
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2020
Consumer prices rose by 0.86%, m/m, in August, leaving the 12-month rate unchanged at 11.8% from July, broadly as expected. The twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation rose markedly however, to 11.5% from 8.3% in July, attesting to the cost-push, effects stemming from recent lira weakness (Graphs 1-2).