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Russian government inconclusive on Navalny poisoning
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2020

The government said there is no evidence to suspect that anti-corruption campaigner Navalny was poisoned. He was rushed to hospital after collapsing on a plane in agonizing paroxysms before being induced into a coma. Russian doctors were of differing opinions as to whether he was poisoned, and so...

The government's new financing plan has been clarified
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2020

Just days ago, the Finance Ministry raised its 2020 fiscal deficit forecast drastically, to 7-9% of GDP from the previous 3.8% level. This represented the third amendment of the deficit target/forecast so far this year, from the original target of just 1% of GDP.Yesterday, the ÁKK reduced the unc...

Tajik President seeking sixth term
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2020

On August 26 Emomali Rahmon was nominated to seek a 6th term. The labor unions nominated the 67 year old. Rahmon has been president since 1992. He is the longest serving leader in the former USSR. He is very overweight and in poor health. It had been speculated that he might retire. Some thought ...

Renda Brasil’s new format under discussion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2020

The format of the Renda Brasil program remains undefined. According to information published by the newspaper O Globo, the Ministry of the Economy’s proposal would be to change the rules for salary bonuses to better focus the benefit among the poorest workers, in addition to cutting expenses. ...

US-Russian confrontation in Syria
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2020

On August 26 Russian and American troops faced off on a road in Syria. Both are part of anti-ISIS coalition pursuant to a UN Security Council Resolution. The Russians say that they informed the US of their intention to send down a road but the US blocked the road. The Americans claim that Russian...

Yandex in Belarus raided by police
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2020

On August 25 police searched the office of Yandex in Minsk. Yandex is the largest Russian internet company. There were 300 employees based in the office, although some are working at home. Yandex has transferred some of its staff to Russia. No one was arrested in the raid. No official explanation...

Debate on Renda Brasil causes disagreements in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2020

When participating in an event at Usiminas, in Minas Gerais (MG) today, President Jair Bolsonaro announced that the proposal for the Renda Brasil program, presented by the economic team, has been suspended. Bolsonaro is said to be dissatisfied with a value of Renda Brasil below R$ 300. There is a...

Thoughts on the strengthening yuan
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Aug 2020

There has been speculation that the recent rise of the yuan will reverse course. The currency strength is encouraging inflows. Clearly, a lower valued currency would encourage exports. However, I estimate that Beijing will not depreciate the yuan, for several reasons. First, the PBOC has tend...

Casa Verde e Amarela program marks a new phase in the social area
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2020

In a ceremony held at the Planalto Palace, President Jair Bolsonaro signed the provisional measure that creates the new government’s housing program – Casa Verde e Amarela – replacing Minha Casa, Minha Vida. President Bolsonaro has restructured and changed the names of programs that were the hal...

Rising debt and falling ratings - Brazil, Colombia, South Africa and Turkey
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2020

​Our live webinar features Affonso Pastore, Juan Carlos Echeverry, Iraj Abedian and Murat Ucer as they discuss the rising fiscal deficits in their countries, a challenge even before the Covid-19 pandemic. Fiscal deficits and debt dynamics will take a turn for the worse for these four countries, r...

The MNB today: No to rate cuts, yes to quantitative easing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2020

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council kept all its interest rates unchanged, but announced to raise the Bank's weekly purchases of government bonds to HUF 40bn from the HUF 10-15bn implemented recently. Just as most lately, the MNB intends to buy bonds with more than 1...

New Budget Amendment Proposal for 2020 requires USD 3.4 billion of additional financing.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Aug 2020 · 1 response

Yesterday the new government of Luis Abinader delivered the proposed amendment to the public sector budget for 2020 to the National Congress. The amendment is justified by the additional drop in revenues of USD -1.2 billion and the increase in expenses of USD 1.9 billion, with respect to the valu...

China virus check – week ending August 24, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Aug 2020

Economic activity in China was mixed in the past week. Heavy industry remains relatively flat – but is not declining. The retail sector is mixed. Car sales were flat YoY but cinema theaters showed a slight uptick, indicating growing confidence among consumers regarding leaving the house. The cons...

Russia declares Austrian diplomat persona non grata
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2020

On August 24 Russia expelled an Austrian diplomat as a reprisal against Austria's expelling a Russia diplomat. Vienna accused the Russian of industrial espionage. Earlier this year Austria jailed one of its army officers for spying for Russia.Austria is the third European country to expel a Russi...

Government prepares announcement of economic measures; Maia focuses on reforms
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020

In order to build a positive agenda, the Jair Bolsonaro government is working on the final format of the basic income program – Renda Brasil, which will replace Bolsa Família – and other projects aimed at restarting economic growth. According to the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo, the Minister o...

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