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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An opposition splinter looming nigh
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Opposition groups seem to be on the verge of splitting up over disagreements on how to bring about regime change. The G4, coalition of four large parties aligned with Guaidó, will not take part in the elections. Juan Guaidó wants to hold a referendum so that Venezuelans can voice their opposi...

Balance of Payments: the trend is deficit in 2020
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2020

At the end of 2020, Brazil will have a small surplus in the current account, partly due to the increase of the quantity exported of basic products (exports to China have been expanding), and partly due to the performance of global exports, which by all recent evidence will decline near the most o...

GUATEMALA: Heading toward recession
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Five months after the first COVID-19 case in Guatemala, the situation has escalated into a full-blown health, economic and social problem. As of August 27th, the number of recognized coronavirus cases had reached 71,000, and the number of deaths had already surpassed 2,600. As in the rest of th...

Paulo Guedes’s future in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2020

The government will send the 2021 Budget proposal to Congress. Legislators may also analyze vetoes, including those dealing with expansion of the emergency aid payments, payroll tax exemptions and the sanitation framework. On Monday, August 31, the period of party conventions begins to select can...

Coping with negative growth
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Indonesia has already seen the painful impact of the pandemic on its economic growth. For the first time since the Asian Crisis in 1998, when the economy declined by 14%, in Q2 2020, Indonesia's economy declined by 5.32%. In the four months since the official announcement of the first case of Cov...

Q2 GDP: Sharp drop, softened by stock build-up and government spending
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2020 · 1 response

The Turkish economy contracted by 9.9% annually (y/y) and 11% sequentially (q/q) in the second quarter of this year, somewhat better than our forecast. The composition of demand is very much in line with the forecasts though, with domestic and foreign demand both making large negative contributio...

The BoI expects zero or negative inflation one year ahead
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Private consumption indicators point to above summer seasonal growth, as Israelis are not traveling abroad. Stronger PC growth will be a factor supporting a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit. The BoI expects extremely low inflation in the coming year, relative to market expectations.

Economy is good, but all eyes are on monetary policy
UKRAINE · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Ukraine continues to move ahead in its idiosyncratic way. Political scandals regularly hum in online media and social nets. Meanwhile, the main TV channels keep soothing viewers with a positive picture of the “people’s president,” as Ukrainians now anxiously await local elections and a second wav...

Economics: Some indicators show slower declines but not recovery
MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Some of the demand and production indicators made public during August proved to be less dire than those of previous months. But despite those relatively slower declines, the fall in 2020 GDP remains on track to be in the double digits. The accelerated negative trend the industrial sector emba...

Belarus' economy facing meltdown
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2020 · 1 response

Threatened EU sanctions are sure to hurt Belarus' economy. Anti-government protests have been ongoing since the presidential election on August 9. In clashes 6 people have been killed.People are lining up to take out foreign currency. The media has reported that foreign currency cash is now in sh...

The BoI expects zero or negative inflation one year ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Aug 2020

Highlights: of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 31.8.20 Monetary policy: Policy rates remained stable at 0.1%, with no adjustment in the forward guidance. More interesting was the Bank of Israel macro forecast which expects inflation much lower than market expectations or that of major forecasters...

It's all gas, now!
TURKEY · Report · 30 Aug 2020

We have decided to change our report timetable a little, starting our Weekly today, i.e. a week earlier than scheduled. We plan to release our Quarterly report next Sunday, after seeing this week’s data releases, and deliberating a bit more on our baseline scenario internally. In the brief spa...

Russian Army and Police ready to assist Lukashenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2020

On August 28 Russian soldiers participated in joint exercises with their Belarussian comrades along the Polish Border. Lukashenko falsely claimed that NATO troops are massing on the frontier and NATO is the wirepuller of the opposition. On August 26 Putin announced that his police are ready to go...

Russian financial markets: retail investors looking for foreign assets
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Aug 2020

The rapid decrease of interest rates in both Russia and the US in the first half of the year fueled the inflow of private investors’ money from banking deposits into the financial markets. As a result the aggregate amount of household funds in brokerage accounts and in asset management companies ...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi 2070 bond, Bahrain lifts debt ceiling, UN opposes snapback sanctions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * FTSE Russell launched a Saudi local bond index covering $73bn in securities. * Concerns grew about Saudi political detainees, including MBN and Saad Aljabri’s relatives. ...

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